tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post7375222661270844338..comments2008-04-28T19:09:42.566+01:00Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03735014952278327031noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-35436041571621555262008-04-28T19:09:00.000+01:002008-04-28T19:09:00.000+01:00Free Bet- My point was the odds were very eratic for no reason at all - Lewis had not left the garage - in fact only about 5 backmakers had done a lap - there's no reason for the odds to have suddenly traded at half the price they were. Lewis is actually one of the most consitent drivers. If he is on it then he will be quick, if not he's slow! You know exactly were you are with him.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03735014952278327031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-29967918352162208052008-04-28T18:55:00.000+01:002008-04-28T18:55:00.000+01:00<A HREF="http://www.betsfreebets.com" REL="nofollow">free bet</A><BR/><BR/>i think the problem iwth backing hamilton is that he is still a rookie, and is quite erratic as u state....Free Bethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07786701245871585370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-10095658934902102632008-04-27T14:58:00.000+01:002008-04-27T14:58:00.000+01:00He said Alonso was on a 3 stopper. I can't beleive they pay him to give his opinion - I would be much cheaper :-)Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03735014952278327031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-86246167355894195452008-04-27T12:40:00.000+01:002008-04-27T12:40:00.000+01:00:) I am watching german tv. What did he say?Loociehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06175837555825720900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-23656062830601179562008-04-27T12:21:00.000+01:002008-04-27T12:21:00.000+01:00I don't know what channel you watch for the race build up, but for anyone in the UK - do the opposite of what Mark Blundell says will happen you can't go far wrong!Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03735014952278327031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-9718688616675729032008-04-27T10:53:00.000+01:002008-04-27T10:53:00.000+01:00Thank you very much for your thoughts. I am glad to have a discussion with you about odds movement depending on different circumstances. I agree with you, if odds did not move very much, it would not be a great deal. I will wait until race start. Maybe I can get some more information in pre race coverage. Good luck!Loociehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06175837555825720900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-4904210101072583872008-04-27T10:29:00.000+01:002008-04-27T10:29:00.000+01:00Mmm that’s a tough one. 1.44 is the shortest odds I’ve seen the pole sitter have for a while (probably because of the stat 9 out of the last 10 pole sitters have won this race). Normally if the odds are around 2.00 then should they keep the lead in the first corner the odds drop to around 1.4-.1.6 depending on circumstances. Starting at 1.44 I can’t see the odds dropping that much if he does keep the lead, (bearing in mind he’s 1.2 not to finish the race) maybe 1.25 or something around that mark which would mean a small loss should he lead the first lap. Problem is if Alonso gets him in first corner his odds won’t move out a great deal because he will still be expected to beat a light Renault. Can’t see much profit/loss either way to be honest. <BR/><BR/>I am tempted to lay Kimi myself but all you are really saying with this type of bet is ‘will Alonso lead in the first corner’ because that’s what you are relying on to make the trade. Alonso odds for first lap lead are not too bad so I’d be more inclined to take that route and accept the full loss if he doesn’t manage it -work out how much you could loose if the Kimi trade went against you and use that as the stake for Alonso first lap lead – if it comes off the return is much higher for the same stake. <BR/><BR/>You could lay Kimi and let the bet run longer in case he has a problem or slow pit stop etc, but you’d obviously be running more risk. <BR/><BR/>Massa podium is also a tough one. The odds are not going to change much until we see the cars come for their first stops around 15-20 laps in the race. I also expect him to make the podium so if things work for him you may never get the chance to get out of the trade without a loss. <BR/><BR/>But then going on my last piece of advice for you, you may want to ignore me!Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03735014952278327031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1044600494019009956.post-69318465707496925572008-04-27T09:31:00.000+01:002008-04-27T09:31:00.000+01:00Hi John,<BR/><BR/>I had same problems with supspended market yesterday and had a small loss according to possible profit.<BR/>What do you think about the following strategies:<BR/><BR/>1. Lay Raikkonen in winner market:<BR/>The question for this plan is: How does the odds move, if Raikkonen wins start and how does odds move, if he loses start against Alonso?<BR/>If Alonso can take the lead than you can trade out and minimize risk. If Raikkonen holds P1 you have to trade out and take a small loss. Raikkonen is available @1.44.<BR/><BR/>2. Lay Massa podium finish market:<BR/>The same question here: How does the odds move?<BR/><BR/>All the best, LoocieLoociehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06175837555825720900noreply@blogger.com