Cracked Sidewalks

Marquette wades into Non-Conference Schedule Bit by Bit

2009-07-13T14:55:00.008-05:00

UPDATED

Evidently, the reason to release the schedule one day at a time is to drive additional traffic to the www.gomarquette.com website. In truth, the folks at Marquette do a pretty good job with their online content. Their video clips are great, so visit the website and click around.

That said, I still think releasing the schedule one day at a time has limited upside and more downside.

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I've always been a fan of ripping the band-aid off right away instead of the slow pull. I like to jump straight into the pool instead of wading in slowly. Basically, it's my preference to get the unpleasantness over with as quickly as possible. And let's face it. Almost always, the non-conference schedule is some level of unpleasantness. This portion of the schedule is not the reason that people buy season tickets. In fact, griping about the non-conference schedule is somewhat of an annual ritual amongst Marquette fans.

Therefore, I found it weird (at best) that Marquette has insisted on releasing the schedule one game at a time. Today's announcement is that Marquette is going to open up the season with...

CENTENARY! YES!

I guess the logic is that we get an entire day to focus on each opponent. Maybe this gives each team on the schedule an opportunity for a further analysis. Perhaps Centenary gets their time in the sun. Who knows? Maybe the non-conference schedule is a treat to be savored slowly and enjoyed, instead of unpleasantness and pain. Neat... their nickname is the Gents.

Or, we can find out that Centenary was 8-23 last season in the Summit League, with a Pomeroy Rating of 246. We could also do a little digging, and find out that their best Pomeroy Rating was back in 2004, at 181. Since then, they've been 316, 317, 248, and 279. Instead of being a savory morsel, Centenary is truly just another bad team Marquette will play because the economics dictate it. Now, for an entire day for two weeks, we get to focus on each portion of the non-conference schedule being bad.

I appreciate the desire of Marquette, or any organization, to experiment. In general, their coverage is outstanding (like last year's video clips). But a good chunk of the schedule is already out there in draft format on the Wiki. Not to mention that Wisconsin has already posted their schedule (by the way, we play them on Dec. 12th). We even provided more info a few weeks ago. Why not just release the whole thing all at once? Is there that much suspense to find out what Friday or Saturday in December we play Seattle?

Like a ritual of late summer, Marquette releases the non-conference schedule, and then the Internet breaks out with complaints. It usually goes as follows:

Defender - all major programs play some number of crap teams for non-conference schedules
Season Ticket Holder - yeah, but I'm the one shelling out $XXXX(X?) to watch this junk
Rinse and repeat as necessary.

One exception to griping was last year, when the comments weren't actually that bad. I attribute this mostly because MU had added another tough opponent in NC State. That was a surprise last year but isn't this year. Plus, the schedule was released and then we moved on. Now, get ready for a solid two weeks (at least) of replaying the above complaints about the non-conference schedule. Maybe tomorrow we can find out when MU plays Presbyterian. Yay?

Lazar leads USA to Bronze with 14 points

2009-07-11T20:06:00.002-05:00

Congrats, Lazar.

More details here.

Star System Predicts MU 5th to 9th in BE

2009-07-06T01:50:00.003-05:00

The 5-star system for rating new recruits has become very familiar to even the casual college basketball fan since William Gates went to a 5-star camp in “Hoop Dreams” before landing at Marquette in 1992.

With Buzz Williams landing three 4-star recruits (6-foot-6 Jeronne Maymon and Erik Williams, 6-1 Junior Cadougan), as well as three 3-star recruits (7-2 Youssoupha Mbao, 6-2 Dwight Buycks and Darius Johnson-Odom) and a potential steal in 6-10 Brett Roseboro, the question is how this incredible class will do next year.

I have worked on a system to equate the 5-star system with what returning players have accomplished, to try to give more of an apples-to-apples between new recruits and returning players. The system basically factors in rankings of returning players from www.nbadraft.net and www.kenpom.com to rank each player coming back for another season from 1 to 6 stars in a ratio consistent with how “star” recruits typically progress. I added the “6-star” rating only for players that are projected to go in the NBA draft after next season on www.nbadraft.net. The ratings of 5, 4, 3.5, 3, 2 or no stars are determined for returning players by a formula using ratings in www.kenpom.com. New 3-star recruits who are ranked among the top 150 recruits in www.rivals.com are given 3.5 stars.

Lazar one of eight 6-star players in Conference as projected #29 NBA pick

Lazar Hayward is now one of eight returning Big East players projected to go in next year’s NBA Draft (as the #29 pick), so those are the only players to get a 6-star rating. The formula gives Jimmy Butler 3.5 stars. With the aforementioned three 4-star recruits and three 3-star recruits, that gives Marquette a total of 30.5 stars from it’s top 8 players, which is as deep as the system goes.

The system isn’t perfect. Obviously, we all see potential upside in David Cubillan, and a lot of muscle underneath in Joe Fulce at 6-7 and hopefully healthy, as well as 6-10 players Chris Otule and Brett Roseboro. But for comparison purposes, we compare the top 8 players on each roster based on their stars.

While Marquette is the only team in the Big East with newcomers making up six of its top eight players in this system, the league is much less experience this year – giving MU a shot to do well. Providence is the only other team in the Big East with five of it’s top eight players as newcomers, but UConn, Pitt, Nova and Notre Dame all have four newcomers among their top eight players.

30.5 stars puts MU in 2nd tier – 5th to 9th place in Big East

Even assuming Ater Majok never puts on a uniform for UConn after the recruiting controversy, UConn still tops Nova as the top team in the Big East looking forward to next year, by a total of 36 stars to 33.5 stars. Syracuse and West Virginia are close behind, to seemingly set up a favorite four that comprise the top-tier.

Marquette seems to be in a pretty tight group from 5th place to 9th place, within one star either way of Georgetown and Cincinnati (31 stars), then Marquette (30.5 stars), followed by Pitt (30) and Louisville (29.5).

This is just a raw measure of overall talent, and it does not make any attempt to break down teams’ strengths and weaknesses by position. For example, while Syracuse is just behind Nova in third place, they did lose their backcourt and it appears all their top line talent is on the front line. It’s easy to see why a return of Johnny Flynn might have made them a favorite to go all the way this year – but without him it appears 3.5 star recruit Brandon Triche, a shooting guard, may be the closest thing they have to a new point guard.

Height no longer a disadvantage

The other thing you may notice below is the average height of each team, which is based only on its top 8 players. At 6-foot-5 1/4, the only three teams with more than a half inch advantage on MU during the upcoming year are Georgetown, West Virginia and Cincinnati. This also does not take into account either Otule or Roseboro, who if they excel and are part of an 8-man rotation, would make MU taller than every team but those three after being the 295th tallent team in the country last year.

The ability to match up with height and add another tenacious 6-6 rebounder in addition to Lazar, certianly means MU will no longer go into “David v. Goliath” battles every time out.

Rankings of the teams – and listing of the top 8 players for each

Please do not any corrections you see. Obviously anyone who was a senior or was drafted was taken off a team’s roster, and any new recruits added, but let me know if you see someone listed who has transferred out for any reason. The order of finish in the Big East for the 2009-2010 season based on the Star system outlined above is as follows, with stars, height, and class listed for each of the team’s top 8 players:

1, UConn (36-stars, 6-5.75), Jerome Dyson (6-stars, 6-4, Sr), Kemba Walker (6-stars, 6-1, So), Stanley Robinson (5-stars, 6-9, Sr), Alex Oriakhi (5-stars, 6-9, New), Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (4-stars, 6-7, New), Darius Smith (4-stars, 6-2, New), Gavin Edwards (3-stars, 6-9, Sr), Jamaal Trice (3-stars, 6-5, New).
2, Villanova (33.5-stars, 6-4.75), Mouphtaou Yarou (5-stars, 6-9, New), Scottie Reynolds (5-stars, 6-2, Sr), Isaiah Armwood (4-stars, 6-7, New), Reggie Redding (4-stars, 6-5, Sr), Dominic Cheek (4-stars, 6-5, New), Corey Fisher (4-stars, 6-1, Jr), Maalik Wayns (4-stars, 6-1, New), Antonio Pena (3.5-stars, 6-8, Jr),
3, Syracuse (33-stars, 6-6.75), Arinze Onuaku (6-stars, 6-9, Sr), Rick Jackson (5-stars, 6-9, Jr), Paul Harris (5-stars, 6-4, Sr), Andy Rautins (4-stars, 6-5, Sr), DaShonte Riley (3.5-stars, 6-11, New), Brandon Triche (3.5-stars, 6-3, New), Kris Joseph (3-stars, 6-7, So), James Southerland (3-stars, 6-6, New),
4, West Virginia (32.5-stars, 6-6.875), Devin Ebanks (6-stars, 6-9, So), Da'Sean Butler (6-stars, 6-7, Sr), Darryl Bryant (4-stars, 6-2, So), Kevin Jones (3.5-stars, 6-8, So), Wellington Smith (3.5-stars, 6-7, Sr), Dalton Pepper (3.5-stars, 6-5, New), Deniz Kilicli (3-stars, 6-9, New), Dan Jennings (3-stars, 6-8, New),
5, Georgetown (31-stars, 6-6.75), Greg Monroe (6-stars, 6-11, So), Chris Wright (5-stars, 6-1, Jr), Hollis Thompson (4-stars, 6-6, New), Austin Freeman (4-stars, 6-4, Jr), Henry Sims (3-stars, 6-10, So), Julian Vaughn (3-stars, 6-9, Jr), Nikita Mescheriakov (3-stars, 6-8, Jr), Omar Wattad (3-stars, 6-5, Jr)
6, Cincinnati (31-stars, 6-6.75), Yancy Gates (5-stars, 6-9, So), Lance Stephenson (5-stars, 6-6, New), Deonta Vaughn (5-stars, 6-1, Sr), Rashad Bishop (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Alvin Mitchell (3.5-stars, 6-5, Jr), Anthony McClain (3-stars, 6-12, Jr), Steve Toyloy (3-stars, 6-8, Sr), Darnell Wilks (3-stars, 6-7, Jr)

7, Marquette (30.5-stars, 6-foot-5.25-inches average), Lazar Hayward (6-stars, 6-6, Sr), Jeronne Maymon (4-stars, 6-6, New), Erik Williams (4-stars, 6-6, New), Junior Cadougan (4-stars, 6-1, New), Jimmy Butler (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Youssoupha Mbao (3-stars, 7-2, New), Dwight Buycks (3-stars, 6-2, New), Darius Johnson-Odom (3-stars, 6-2, New) – not factored, but with great upside, Dave Cubillan (2-stars, 6-0), Chris Otule (6-10), Brett Roseboro (6-10) and Joe Fulce (6-7).

8, Pittsburgh (30-stars, 6-5.5, Jr), Dante Taylor (5-stars, 6-8, New), Gilbert Brown (5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Jermaine Dixon (4-stars, 6-3, Sr), Lamar Patterson (3.5-stars, 6-5, New), Brad Wanamaker (3.5-stars, 6-4, Jr), Talib Zanna (3-stars, 6-9, New), J.J. Richardson (3-stars, 6-7, New), Ashton Gibbs (3-stars, 6-2, So),
9, Louisville (29.5-stars, 6-5.75), Samardo Samuels (5-stars, 6-9, So), Rakeem Buckles (4-stars, 6-8, New), Peyton Siva (4-stars, 6-0, New), Terrence Jennings (3.5-stars, 6-9, So), Edgar Sosa (3.5-stars, 6-2, Sr), Preston Knowles (3.5-stars, 6-1, Jr), Stephan Van Treese (3-stars, 6-9, New), Jared Swopshire (3-stars, 6-8, So)
10, Seton Hall (29-stars, 6-5.875), Robert Mitchell (5-stars, 6-6, Sr), Jeremy Hazell (5-stars, 6-5, Jr), John Garcia (4-stars, 6-9, Sr), Eugene Harvey (4-stars, 6-0, Sr), Mike Davis (3-stars, 6-11, Jr), Ferrakohn Hall (3-stars, 6-7, New), Jordan Theodore (3-stars, 6-0, So), Brandon Walters (2-stars, 6-9, Jr)
11, St. John's (29-stars, 6-5.375), Sean Evans (4-stars, 6-8, Jr), Justin Burrell (4-stars, 6-8, Jr), D.J. Kennedy (4-stars, 6-6, Jr), Paris Horne (4-stars, 6-3, Jr), Rob Thomas (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Malik Boothe (3.5-stars, 5-9, Jr), Dele Coker (3-stars, 6-10, Jr), Quincy Roberts (3-stars, 6-5, So)
12, Notre Dame (28-stars, 6-5.875), Luke Harangody (6-stars, 6-8, Sr), Tory Jackson (4-stars, 5-11, Sr), Tyrone Nash (3-stars, 6-8, Jr), Mike Broghammer (3-stars, 6-8, New), Jack Cooley (3-stars, 6-8, New), Tom Knight (3-stars, 6-8, New), Joey Brooks (3-stars, 6-5, New), Jonathan Peoples (3-stars, 6-3, Sr)
13, Rutgers (28-stars, 6-5.25), Gregory Echenique (4-stars, 6-9, So), Dane Miller (4-stars, 6-5, New), Mike Rosario (4-stars, 6-3, So), Hamady N'Diaye (3.5-stars, 6-11, Sr), Corey Chandler (3.5-stars, 6-2, Jr), Austin Johnson (3-stars, 6-7, New), Earl Pettis (3-stars, 6-5, Jr), Mike Coburn (3-stars, 6-0, Jr)
14, DePaul (26.5-stars, 6-5.75), Mac Koshwal (5-stars, 6-10, Jr), Dar Tucker (4-stars, 6-5, Jr), Will Walker (3.5-stars, 6-0, Sr), Devin Hill (3-stars, 6-9, So), Tony Freeland (3-stars, 6-5, New), Mike Stovall (3-stars, 6-5, New), Jeremiah Kelly (3-stars, 6-1, So), Krys Faber (2-stars, 6-11, So)
15, Providence (25-stars, 6-3.125), Marshon Brooks (4-stars, 6-5, Jr), Sharaud Curry (3.5-stars, 5-10, Sr), Johnnie Lacy (3.5-stars, 5-10, New), James Still (3-stars, 6-8, New), Kadeem Batts (3-stars, 6-8, New), Brian McKenzie (3-stars, 6-4, Sr), Vincent Council (3-stars, 6-1, New), Duke Mondy (2-stars, 6-3, New)
16, South Florida (25-stars, 6-6.125), Dominique Jones (5-stars, 6-4, Jr), Augustus Gilchrist (3.5-stars, 6-10, So), Chris Howard (3.5-stars, 6-3, Sr), Alex Rivas Sanchez (3-stars, 6-10, Sr), Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (3-stars, 6-7, New), Shaun Noriega (3-stars, 6-4, New), Eladio Espinosa (2-stars, 6-7, So), Mike Mercer (2-stars, 6-4, Sr)

Hayward shoots up to 1st round NBA status

2009-07-05T19:21:00.002-05:00

Lazar Hayward recently became a member of the US team competiting in the World University Games, and has done quite well. Apparently, his stock is rising among the NBA Scouts as well.

Just days after Marquette fans sat through a 2nd round of the NBA Draft that saw teams ignore Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews in favor of European players they have no intention of signing, Hayward is suddenly back in the thick of the 2010 mock draft.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2010mock_draft

I was actually researching for an early preview column of next year's Big East, comparing the incoming freshman's "star" rating at rivals.com with the returning players each team has based on their productivity last year and which ones are good enough to make the NBA.

I went to nbadraftnet to see how the NBA-duos for West Virginia (Devin Ebanks/DeSean Butler) and UConn (Kemba Walker/Jerome Dyson) were faring in the mock draft, when I noticed that Lazar is now forecast to be the 4th Big East Player in the NBA Draft and the 29th player taken overall.

If the reports are true that Lazar is handling the ball more often and well are true (this was theoretically the reason he dropped out of the mock draft last year despite his incredible shooting and rebounding) then this could be quite a key development to help the great recruiting class gel next year.

The comparison of recruiting classes and returning players from each Big East team will be forthcoming, but I wanted to get this out.

2009-10 Schedule becomes clearer..

2009-07-02T12:55:00.005-05:00

The Big East announced the home/away schedule today.

The Warriors will have mirror games versus DePaul, Providence, and Nova.

Home - Bradley Center
DePaul
Georgetown
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Providence
Rutgers
USF
Villanova

Away
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Providence (Mirror)
DePaul (Mirror)
St. John’s
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Villanova (Mirror)
West Virginia

That looks like a really good draw for a young Marquette team. The Any Given Sunday rule applies, but playing DePaul twice (0-18 last year) is a gift.

Lots of great games at the BC: Gtown, UL, ND, Pitt, Nova .. probably all of those are top-half of the BE, so playing them at home is huge.

Plus, we don't have to play @UL, @ND, @Pitt, @Gtown, four very tough venues.

As for the Out of Conference Games at the BC.. here's what we know so far:

UWM Dec 8.
Presbyterian
Centenary Nov 13.
Seattle
NC State

Marquette will also play UW @ Madison, and participate in the Old Spice Classic (Alabama, Baylor, Creighton, Florida State, Iona, Michigan, Xavier) on Nov 26-29.

As always, you can check the MUScoop wiki for the latest info on the schedule.

Todd Rosiak has more on the schedule.

New Trio of Guards Needs the Minutes

2009-06-30T01:10:00.002-05:00

With Mo Acker gone, I believe we are going to be spending some time next year yelling at the TV after turnovers by Junior Cadougan, Darius Johnson-Odom and Dwight Buycks. We’ve been spoiled by DJ taking care of the ball the past four years, and Mo did a great job down the stretch of not turning the ball over to give us a chance right up until the final seconds of the Missouri game.

That being said, I think it was much better to have Mo go out with his final days being a great job of filling in after DJ broke his foot, because looking at his per minute averages, the alternative was going to be to end up riding out almost all of his senior season from the bench.

Buzz is obviously a number-cruncher, and the more I looked at the per minute averages, the more it was apparent that there was no reason to have Mo eat up minutes rather than have Cadougan, Johnson-Odom and Buycks go through their growing pains in non-conference play.

Offensive bad news - Losing Acker will cause MU turnovers

Acker’s turnover percentage (21.1% this year, 21.3% career) was a little high. Granted, we were spoiled by DJs improvement in lowering his turnover percentage every year from 18% (freshman year), to 17.4%, 16.5% and finally 15.9% this year. Based on scouting reports, it sounds like Cadougan, Johnson-Odom and Buycks are all going to be turnover prone, so let’s start getting the turnovers out of their system with minutes from Day 1 and hope they all make the same kind of improvement throughout their careers that DJ did.

Offensive good news - New Guard Trio will get to the hoop

By all accounts, the new trio all have quick first steps and can get to the hoop. Mo’s lack of ability to get to the hoop to produce either baskets or assists would have made it difficult to play him.

- ASSISTS. While no one will match DJs incredible assist ratios (30.6% of MU baskets resulted from DJ passes while he was on the floor, 31.1% career), Mo was at point his passes led to less than one in five of MUs baskets (19% last year, 18% career). So Mo really didn’t have the ability to create baskets, which will be even more important in trying to build the big guys confidence next year.

- SHOOTING. After his phenomenal freshman season, DJ shot a very frustrating 40% from the floor his final three seasons (452 of 1132). However, Mo was a MUCH WORSE SHOOTER, hitting only 35% of his shots (156 of 444) in his 3-year career (including Ball State).

Even if Mo had stayed on the team, I believe Buzz could have only put the new trio on the court as much as possible to drive, shoot and dish. Yeah, the turnovers will come, but the big guys will improve quicker as the new trio draws defenders away and dishes inside.

Defensive Bad News - Losing Acker will cost MU steals

We have been incredibly spoiled by the steals the Three Amigos have piled up the last four years, and Mo would have cut our losses some with a lot of steals. In his three seasons, he stole the ball 3.1% of opponents' trips down the court, which was only slightly lower than DJs 3.5%. So next year’s team, and possibly the next four years, MU will be a much worse team in one of the four main factors that determine who wins games – the team with the lower turnover percentage each game.

Defensive Good News - New Trio needed to stand up to rigors of Big East defense

As I detailed in a column late in the season, DJs defense his final season was without comparison. While only 5-11, his muscular 185 pound frame and incredible speed and vertical simply shut down almost every Big East guard. At 5-8/165, Mo just couldn’t physically matchup with opposing guards and required too much help.

Even AP ALL-AMERICAN Jerel McNeal (sorry, I just like typing that out any chance I get) was a great off-ball defender, but really had trouble matching up physically on ball with the likes of Flynn and Price.

I am truly excited that the new trio weighs in at 6-2/205 (Johnson-Odom), 6-3/185 (Buycks) and 6-2/220 (Coudougan), and appear to all be such physical players able to play their position.

In short, DJ was a poor shooter (40% final three years), but made up for it by being absolutely dominant in all other aspects of the game; assists, turnovers, steals, physical defense and penetration. We could more than live with DJ's shooting. With Acker’s other limitations, he had to be a very good shooter to merit any minutes on the court next year, and the fact is he was a much worst shooter (35% in three years) than even DJs last year (38%) would have made it tough to justify playing him at all.

In the end, it simply made no sense to have Mo on the court this year. I don’t know if MU will finish 12th or 13th in the Big East, as some predict for this year, or repeat the shocker of 2006 by having the freshman gel by the end of the year so that they can make the NCAA tournament.

However, in either case we need the new trio on the court as early and often as possible. Maybe that means we will make the NCAA like in 2006, and maybe it means we will get eaten up by the Big East like the great 1991 freshman were – but have the minutes in to go onto great runs after next year. However, in either case, MU is best served by having the new guard trio work out the kinks and take it to a new level as soon as possible.

We may need Cube’s 3-pointers to loosen defenses, but by all accounts, the New Guard Trio gives us enough ability to dribble and get to the hoop.

It makes sense to remember Mo as the guy who helped pull MU when all appeared lost after DJs broken foot, and do enough to get us within a few seconds of the Sweet 16.

Adios, Maurice Acker

2009-06-25T13:48:00.011-05:00

In a decision that (unsurprisingly) confirmed a long-running rumor, MU today announced that Maurice Acker would not return for his senior season. In a statement released by the university this afternoon Buzz Williams said, "He is one semester shy of completing his degree and we all believed it was in Maurice's best interest for that to be his priority."

What? I wonder who "we" is in this equation. It's difficult to imagine a player willingly forgoing his final season of eligibility because he is on track to graduate a semester early. It is also difficult to imagine a coach telling a player to stop playing because he might graduate early. Frankly, finishing classes ahead of schedule is a great reason to stay in school because a student-athlete can play ball and enjoy campus life without a taxing academic workload.

The explanation is nonsense.

Explanation aside, on IM today Rob and I had a debate on what Acker's departure would mean to the team this season. As you'll see we have differing points of view on Acker's value to the program:

+++++++++++++++++

Tim: OK after months of rumors, Maurice Acker is gone....only two-Crean era players remain

Rob: I wonder who (if anyone) fills that spot

Tim: hopefully just Darius Johnson-Odom. I mean -- Acker was a spare part anyway, like Cubillan

Rob: leaves us short at point

Tim: I don't think so.......Acker played so many empty minutes last year where his greatest contribution was that he didn't turn the ball over. That's a very low bar. All Buzz needs is DJO, Buycks and Cadougan to be eligible

Rob: you and I have a different appreciation for not turning the ball over. I regard that skill quite highly

Tim: We agree there. Still, other than one game Acker was a lousy defender, he could not score a lick (no midrange game), and the offense was ineffective with him as a starter. Johnson-Odom averaged nearly 5 apg last year -- I figure he has a pretty good handle.

Rob: /really/? you're falling for the "grass is greener" argument?

Tim: falling on the "Acker was a MAC player who never became a high-major good role player" argument.

Rob: with experience, lots of experience

Tim: the new kids are better than him anyway and MU will play an advantageous slate early -- so by the time Big East play starts, experience will not be as much of a factor

Rob: I think you are undervaluing Acker

Tim: Acker shot 29% from the floor -- offensively bankrupt. We learned last year that as a role player he was particularly bad -- ie, 1 made 3pointer in BE play through the first 12 conference games (which included 2 DNPs!). He only got better when he had the gift of starter minutes from James' injury. He would not get 24-40 minutes per game next season....he'd be back to the spot duty role that he was so unproductive in last year.

Rob: let's be clear. I'm not saying he is a great player or even starter-worthy. I'm saying he was years ahead of the incoming players

Tim: He was awful in spot duty last year, that's what he'd get this year. You are basing your assessment of Acker by his performance in the last month of the season, I'd guess

Rob: you don't know that his contributions were bad just because of the new system/coach/transition etc

Tim: doesn't matter........they were bad, so bad that in 2 conference games he didn't command any minutes and in two others he played 3 minutes.

Rob: that's Buzz and his short bench... which you have yourself lamented

Tim: with Williams, Cadougan, DJO, and Buycks ....... Acker/Cubillan were likely 3-5 mins per game players anyway. I mean look at his game by game. He was an ineffective role player

Rob: so you think net positive he's gone?

Tim: net neutral, he'd go from DNP to 5 mins per game on a good day if he stayed.

Rob: see... I could see him getting more time than that. I think experience is huge in college basketball

Tim: his experience as a role player shows that he was particularly awful in that capacity

Rob: experience in practice

Tim: As Iverson said, "Practice!?"

Rob: you miss my point. A senior knows the effort that is required in practice, which earns PT on the court. is that not a big part of the transition for all the new players? understanding what it takes every day to perform in D1?

Tim: well, it's a good thing Cuby will be there

Rob: and then what if, say Cadougan and Buycks hurt their feet in boot camp

Tim: if any team loses their starting backcourt, they'll lose games. if the reason to worry about Acker leaving the program is a catastrophic series of injuries -- I can live with that.

Rob: I just see a lot of value in the senior experience and don't attribute his lack of success just to his capabilities

Tim: he'd fallen completely out of favor presumably because he failed to adjust to the role

Rob: or because Buzz was finding his way as a coach

Tim: that and Ackers' ineffectiveness

Rob: probably both

Tim: and with the coach getting his own kids here this year that he needs to develop, Acker would have been marginalized again

Rob: I'm not convinced that he would have been but I guess it doesn't matter. It's unlikely that in mid-January I'll ever say "if only we had Acker on the team"

Tim: if u say THAT, the team is kaput anyway

Tim: Buzz has to develop the newbies if the team is gonna win games. Let's just hope they are all on campus for second summer session starting on July 6

Rob: I'm excited about the team, but have a number of concerns, lots of new players....will they all make it?

Tim: right. Buzz needs'em all on campus

Rob: My guess is Mbao ain't gonna play at all this year with those eligibility questions

Tim: I am happy to know that Buycks is already there, that is huge IMHO. same with Maymon and grades -- he could allow Lazar some more flexibility

Rob: Maybe I'm jaded from Lazar and Mbakwe, but I'll be astonished if he qualifies before November

Tim: on Mbao. I wonder if this will be a clearinghouse drama

Rob: right... and then he's behind.

Tim: if all the other kids are on campus, my worries go way down. Mbao would not play much this year under the best of circumstances anyway.

Rob: because of all the frontline talent ahead of him?

Tim: it'll be a rough year down low even with Mbao

Rob: oh sure

Tim: that is why, despite his shorter stature, Maymon can help. Otule, Maymon, Lazar, 5 mins from Roseboro might have to be enough for MU in the winter

Rob: could be another long year with more excuses

Tim: I dont know that last year was one of those years....DJ's injury was not an excuse so much as an explanation. Anytime a team loses 4 starters the next season could be a long one

Rob: not a surprise, but there are different kinds of rebuilding years. I want to see the team improve as the year goes on, have a few players show promise and potential

Tim: right. this will be a complete reconstruction. but we knew that was coming....moving away from "TC and the Quest for the Best 6-5 and Under Team"

Rob: my big concern is injuries.

Tim: which is no different from any recent Marquette season

Rob: didn't you feel like there were a lot of injuries last year?

Tim: of course. MU had McNeal as a sophomore, Wesley as a freshman... MU has had its share of soul-crushing injuries in the last few years

Rob: true. I was thinking of it in terms of injuries that hamper development

Tim: it's a risk for any program

Rob: even more so for MU this year. Still, it should be an interesting year

Tim: definitely

Help Send Otule to Germany

2009-06-23T08:58:00.003-05:00

From Rosiak's latest blog about Chris Otule:

...In addition to attending summer school and working on his game, Otule is also hopeful of heading overseas as part of an athletic ministry. Scheduled to take place in Munich and Nuremberg, Germany from July 30-Aug. 18, the trip would serve a few purposes for him.

"It’s going to be a good experience for me because it will be my first time overseas, so I’m excited about that," he said.

In order to go, Otule must raise $3,000 in donations. He's already part of the way there, but could use some more help, he said.

Anyone interested in donating should contact the MU men's basketball office at (414) 288-7130 for more information.

The Wayback Machine shows the road ahead

2009-06-18T02:44:00.011-05:00

With the NBA draft deadline passing earlier this week a host of very early pre-season rankings are popping up for the college basketball-starved. For Marquette the pattern is predicable with Adam Zagoria notably slotting the Warriors in for a 12th place finish in the still far-off BIG EAST season. Zagoria cites the loss of key players (including Patrick Hazel, LOL) and inexperience as the reasons for the low expectations which Chris Dokish at the NBE Basketball Report also notes as he picks MU to finish 11th overall.

Considering the dramatic roster turnover these predictions are somewhat sound but MU fans ought to remember that Marquette's first BIG EAST squad was picked to finish 12th overall for similar reasons, yet surprised with a 4th place finish. (**Say what you want about Tom Crean, but he did a heck of a job coaching that team and deserved the BIG EAST Coach of the Year nod over Jay Wright. If somebody can explain to me why Wright was the pick -- after all, Nova was favored to win the league and they did what was expected (barely) -- I'm all ears.)

Since it's only June optimism abounds in these parts and looking ahead there are a number of parallels between the Three Amigos' freshman season and the campaign Buzz' Bunch will kick off in the fall. Consider......

The return of an outstanding senior scorer. Lazar Hayward is this year's Steve Novak. As a senior Novak was the most efficient offensive player in the country and a nearly impossible match-up. Luckily for MU, Hayward is the most efficient returning offensive player in the BIG EAST (for higher-usage players, ie: involved in 20% of their team's possessions). Hayward averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds per game as junior. Steve Novak averaged 14 points and four rebounds per game as a junior and elevated as a senior averaging nearly 18 points and six rebound per game. This is promising.

An offensively efficient role player. Jimmy Butler led the BIG EAST in offensive efficiency last season. Though the sample size is small which is what you'd expect from a role player Butler saved his best for the back half of the BIG EAST conference slate, a positive indicator for next season. Looking back to the 05-06 team, senior Joe Chapman was the 6th most efficient offensive player in the BIG EAST, providing a serviceable veteran threat to complement Novak's greatness. The 2005-2006 team was not simply Steve and the Amigos.

Overloaded, redundant perimeter talent. I knocked Tom Crean's inability to balance a roster many times, but in 2005-2006 the formula worked. That squad had no discernible inside presence much like we'd expect from Buzz' Bunch next season. However by adding the Three Amigos to Novak and backcourt/wing role players like Joe Chapman and Dan Fitzgerald (who nailed 40% of his three-pointers that year) Crean created match-up problems for the opposition in most conference games. Fast forward to next season when Buzz Williams will surround veteran role players Maurice Acker, David Cubillan and Jimmy Butler with newcomers Junior Cadougan, Dwight Buycks, Erik Williams and Darius Johnson-Odom. In effect, the formula could be familiar to the Warrior faithful though next year's team also figures to receive a sizable boost from freshman power forward Jeronne Maymon.

The BIG EAST takes a step back. After the 2004-2005 season the BIG EAST endured a massive talent exodus highlighted by Charlie Villanueva, Hakim Warrick, Ryan Gomes, Chris Taft, Chevy Troutman, Chris Thomas and Josh Pace. When teams laced'em up in the 2005-2006 season two teams stood out as heavyweights, Villanova and UConn. The rest of the league was balanced with only four games separating the 3rd place and 10th place teams. In addition, 2004-2005 BIG EAST champ Boston College left the league that previous summer and 2005 Final Four participant Louisville joined the BIG EAST after losing All-American Francisco Garcia as well as starters Ellis Myles and Larry O'Bannon. And we all know what happened to Bob Huggins at Cincy that off-season. Crean's squad took full advantage of a younger, tamer BIG EAST to storm to the top quarter of the league.

This past season the BIG EAST was historically dominant placing five teams in the Sweet 16 and three in the Elite 8. As you'd expect the outgoing talent from those teams is extraordinary. Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, Earl Clark, DaJuan Blair, Sam Young, Levance Fields, Terrence Williams, DaJuan Summers, the Three Amigos, Paul Harris, Jonny Flynn, A.J. Price and Dante Cunningham are just a few of the athletes who will play the game for a living in the fall. An exodus like that creates somewhat of a vacuum that a talented team -- no matter how young or inexperienced -- figures to take advantage of. To be sure, every other BIG EAST team is re-loading for the winter and a pair of unheralded teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall could be poised for breakthrough seasons, so why not MU?

Player development: With roughly five months until the Warriors kick off the season, player development is crucial and based on Buzz Williams' comments last week on the radio it appears that Chris Otule is making giant strides this summer. On the 05-06 team, sophomore Ousmane Barro averaged a quiet four points and three rebounds per game, figures that could be attainable with modest progress from Otule.

Otule's progress is tempered a bit by Joe Fulce's problematic knee which required surgery and will keep him out of action for about 12 weeks, but the MU roster can overcome that loss. In addition with JUCO All-American Dwight Buycks already on campus hitting the books and the off-season program the Warriors could shore up their backcourt more quickly than expected.

Again, why not? History could be on the Warriors' side this winter.

Tee it up: Support The Nicole Ellis Foundation

2009-06-09T08:58:00.003-05:00

Next month Marquette great Bo Ellis and his family will once again host the Warrior Day Golf Outing to benefit The Nicole Ellis Foundation. Last year's inaugural event raised $37,000 and with your help we'll be able to top that number this year.

The 2nd Annual Warrior Day Golf Outing will be held on Tuesday, July 21st at the Grand Geneva in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin. For $300 all participants will enjoy a full round of golf with a Warrior, a golfing goodie bag, lunch, dinner and drinks. As you'd expect the organizers will also host both a silent and live auction at the event that will be loaded with Warrior memorabilia.

The Nicole Ellis Foundation is dedicated to keeping Nicole's spirit and passion alive through contributions to select not-for-profit organizations. This year's golf outing will benefit the American Liver Foundation and the MU Ethnic Alumni Association.

Warriors scheduled to participate this year include players who collectively represent Marquette basketball going back more than 60 years, including:

That is one heck of a list of golfing buddies -- please see the brochure for a complete listing of participating Warrior greats (and thanks to the guys at MUScoop for hosting the .pdf again this year).

If your calendar allows please consider making time to join the extended Marquette hoops community in support of this great cause. Any progress we can collectively make to halt liver disease and to help MU in the process will make a positive difference in the lives of others.

Sponsorship opportunities are available and range from $150 ranging to $6,000. To inquire about sponsorship opportunities please contact the Nicole Ellis Foundation at nicoleellisfoundation@yahoo.com or (262) 432-5433.

Dig deep folks, let's turn out and make this year's outing a great success.

Happy Birthday, Jerel.

2009-06-01T23:59:00.003-05:00

From the Chicago Trib - June 1st:

Former Marquette basketball star Jerel McNeal from Hillcrest High School threw out a ceremonial first pitch before Monday night's Sox-Oakland game. McNeal, who celebrated his 22nd birthday Monday, finished as Marquette's career leader in scoring and steals.

Bob Dukiet, former Marquette Coach, dead at 61

2009-05-30T21:53:00.003-05:00

Bob Dukiet, died Thursday in Boynton Beach, Florida, where he retired a dozen years ago.

Dukiet (“The Piano Man”) coached Marquette from 1986-89, and had a 39-46 (45.9%) record, before being replaced by Kevin O'Neill.

More from the Erie Times.

A look back, Marquette's history with Top 100 recruits...Part Three, the 2000s

2009-05-20T08:00:00.001-05:00

We're back today with Part Three in our series, this time with a look at what most would call the "Tom Crean Era". Yes, Buzz Williams has been the coach for the final two recruiting classes of the decade, but as I will explain later on, those particular players will not factor in to this analysis.

Coach Crean was here longer than any coach since Al McGuire, and he achieved more success than any since Al, bringing Marquette to the school's first Final Four since winning it all back in 1977. There's been a lot of debate about his recruiting through the years, and whether or not he was able to recruit at the level many people thought he should. You'll have to see if the myths about his recruiting actually hold up as you read the article....and for those who missed the previous installments you can find them here and here.

As always, a few notes before we get to the actual rankings:

We'll get the legend out of the way early on this one, since it will factor in to a couple of the notes to follow. The services listed are the ones that come into the discussion in this decade, you can go to Part One to see all the services used in this series. Additionally, some of you may know of some other services that ranked Marquette players during this decade like Rise Magazine and CSTV. Unfortunately the accuracy for these services when it comes to the simple things(name, position, class and college choice) is so off that I just couldn't include them in the final analysis. Because of that, the list below may be missing a player or two, but I doubt it. As always, click the picture for a better view.

It may just be the way I look at it, but I think it is a bit unfair to evaluate players that haven't completed at least two years of their college career . This is especially true with players that may have been injured, or players that came in as back ups early in their career. The only time that isn't really the case is if a particular player is so spectacularly good(or spectacularly bad) that nothing they could do in their final two years would change the analysis(i.e. early entry to the NBA). For that reason, you will not see any analysis of players in the recruiting classes of 2007 and 2008. They are however, listed below.

That also means you will not see any analysis of the Class of 2009 recruits until at least 2013, but I figure I should mention them so you all can see how the class compares to others in the past. Keep in mind that the RSCI ranking listed for these players has not been updated since last fall and likely will not be updated until the final rankings are out from all services sometime in June or July. The other rankings listed for them are current.

You're going to see some players in this edition that you would not normally think of as Top 100 players because they came to Marquette from a Junior College. In this era with the multitude of services, there are some services that do a combined evaluation of high school and JUCO players together. Since I am factoring that ranking in for the high school players, I decided to include the JUCO players in the discussion even though you would not normally think of them as being part of a Top 100 ranking. On the other hand, I did not include any ranking that was made up solely of JUCO players, since there is no real way to translate that into a high school Top 100 equivalent.

Remember, transfer players count with the class they came to Marquette with, not necessarily their high school class, and they are evaluated on their entire college career not just their career at Marquette. JUCO players on the other hand are only evaluated on their Marquette careers because it's tough to gauge the level of competition they face in junior college.

As I mentioned in Part Two, I'm only counting players that actually enrolled or attempted to enroll in classes. Whether they actually went to class, or ever played a game for Marquette doesn't really matter. That means you may see a name that you don't normally think of as a Marquette recruit.

Because of the way some of the services do their rankings in this era, players that were actually evaluated as Top 100 talent may not have made the Top 100 due to the fact that they went to a Prep School. I'm speaking specifically of Damian Saunders. Scout.com had him as a 4-Star player and the #22 Power Forward in the country coming out of Notre Dame Prep but did not include him in their Top 100, since they only rank high school players. Given the rankings of the players around him on the Power Forward list, it's safe to say that Saunders would have fallen somewhere in the 80-100 range in the Top 100 had they included Prep players. But they didn't, so he doesn't make the list.

Lastly, and I'm sure that I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, what I'm analyzing is whether or not a player lived up to the hype of a particular ranking or the label of a "Top 100" player in general. If I think a player failed to live up to that ranking, it doesn't mean that he was a bad guy or a terrible player, just that he didn't match what you would expect from a player supposedly of that caliber. In fact, it's really more of a statement on the validity of these type of rankings, and how much weight we should be giving them.

With that out of the way, here are Marquette's Top 100 players in the 2000s, or more specifically from 2000-2006. Click for a better view.

At a glance you can tell that this is quite a few more "Top 100" recruits than in the past. In seven recruiting classes, there are a total of 20 recruits that were ranked, compared to 14 in the 1990s and 12 in the 1980s. The number is a bit inflated due to the inclusion of the JUCO rankings, but even if you take them out there are still more players in seven recruiting classes than there were in either of the previous two decades. Further, if you include the players that will not be evaluated, that number jumps even higher. We'll have to see how these players did in comparison to those that came before.

The Hits(Chronological Order)

Odartey Blankson - It may not have worked out the way people wanted it to at Marquette, but there's no denying ODB's talent. He started 55 of 58 games during his two years at Marquette averaging 7.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG before transferring to UNLV. In two years at UNLV, Odartey averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG. He was named All Mountain West Conference as a senior. Sure it happened against possibly weaker competition, but given what he had shown at Marquette there's a fairly good chance he would have put up similar numbers had he stayed.

Scott Merritt - One of the most unnecessarily criticized players in recent memory. Maybe he didn't develop into a dominant back to the basket center like some thought he should, but he was an incredibly solid and remarkably consistent player. Merritt fought through a painful shoulder injury and surgery to become the only player in Marquette history to score over 1000 points, grab over 600 rebounds, dish out over 100 assists and block over 100 shots.

Dwyane Wade - I think I'm going to let this one stand on name value alone. You all know what he did, nothing I can say will capture it properly.

Travis Diener - Another name that just stands out in the annals of Marquette history. Likely would have been the school's all time leading scorer if he had not suffered multiple injuries his senior year. Despite that, when he left school he was 3rd all time in scoring, 2nd in assists, 1st in 3-Point Field Goals Made, and 1st in 3-Point Field Goals attempted. He also finished in the top 10 in career 3-Point Percentage, Free Throws Made and Free Throw Percentage.

Steve Novak - Perhaps the greatest shooter in Marquette history, definitely the greatest shooter in modern history. Averaged double figures in points his final three years including leading the team in scoring as a senior. Among the top 15 in scoring, Novak is 1st in every major 3-Point shooting category(FG Made, FG Attempted, FG %) and 1st in Free Throw Percentage. He was Marquette's 2nd Conference USA Freshman of the Year and the first player in Marquette history to be named to the All Big East First Team.

Robert Jackson - He played only one year at Marquette after transferring from Mississippi State, but what a year it was. Jackson averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG, the latter of which lead the team. In his final two years at Mississippi State, Jackson averaged 11.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG, while being named 3rd Team All SEC as a sophomore.

Dominic James, Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal - They came in together, they starred together, it just didn't feel right to separate them in the analysis since so much of what they did was about how they played as a unit. The loss to Missouri still stings a bit, and it's a bit hard to believe their Marquette careers are finally over, so I'm going to forgo the analysis on them since we all remember what they did.

Lazar Hayward - He's already scored over 1200 points and were he to simply duplicate his 2008-09 results next year he'd rank 2nd on the All Time list. More than a scorer, Hayward has led the team in rebounding as the last two years. For his efforts, Hayward was named All Big East 2nd Team as a sophomore, and robbed of that award as a junior. Not only that, but he did all while playing out of his natural position. All the accolades that Hayward received in high school came while he played either the shooting guard or small forward position, and he's spent his entire Marquette career as either a power forward or center.

The Misses(Chronological Order)

Terry Sanders - Not a bad player, but when you are ranked as highly as he was, more is expected. Sanders was a bench player for three years and a starter as a senior. Offensively there were always flashes that he could do more, but whether he couldn't do it consistently or Tom Crean's offense didn't utilize him more, we never got more than flashes. He was a capable rebounder and defender down low. Career averages of 3.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 0.3 Blocks in four years.

Ron Howard - Played in 10 games scoring 16 points before transferring to Valparaiso. Named All Conference Second Team in the Mid-Con in 2005 and 2006. Averaged over 13 PPG and 4 APG his final two years. Those aren't necessarily bad numbers, and he's not a bad player as shown by his nearly making the Milwaukee Bucks roster last summer. But I don't know that production like that in a mid-major conference qualifies as living up to the hype of his ranking when you consider what he did at Marquette. Right now he's a borderline player and I'm willing to be talked out of keeping him here.

Marshall Williams - Like Alton Mason before him, I'm sure a lot of you are saying who in the world is Marshall Williams? His time with Marquette was incredibly brief, but it did happen and it was enough to put him on this list. For those that don't know, Williams was the best high school player in Wisconsin coming from powerhouse Milwaukee Vincent. He chose NC State out of high school where he posted 5.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG as a freshman. Injury and homesickness led him to transfer to Marquette following his freshman year. He enrolled in and even briefly attended summer school, probably attending more classes than Alton Mason, but that's where his Marquette career ends. The official story was that he didn't want to sit out a year and not play so he chose to attend Vincennes Junior College where he would eligible right away. After a year at Vincennes, he was supposed to return to Marquette, but his scholarship was given away with almost no mention. Instead of coming to Marquette, he briefly attended UW-Green Bay but left before playing a game. He finished his career at NAIA Georgetown College in Kentucky where he was an All Conference player.

Karon Bradley - Played in 48 games at Marquette where he had a high of 10 career points. After his sophomore season he transferred to Wichita State and averaged 8 PPG and 1.6 APG. He'd come to Marquette with a reputation as an undersized shooting guard who could score points in bunches but never really showed that in college. If it had only happened at Marquette, we could probably write it off due to the fact that he played out of position and was a back up, but given that it continued at WSU, perhaps the hype was too much.

Dameon Mason - This is really the case of two very different careers in four years, and the latter half was so abysmal that I think he has to be classified as a miss. Mason was a part time starter as a freshman and full time starter as a sophomore at Marquette. His sophomore year he averaged 11.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG and appeared to be on the upswing. That sort of production throughout 4 years would have guaranteed being a hit, but it didn't turn out that way. For reasons that remain unclear, he transferred to LSU after his sophomore year. He was a part time starter as a junior when he averaged 5.4 PPG and 3 RPG. As a senior, he missed time due to injury (migraines, enlarged heart) and played in only 7 games before being declared academically ineligible.

Brandon Bell - Perhaps Bell's fall started before he ever got to campus. When he committed, in addition to the ranking from Gibbons, Bell was also in the Top 100 at TheInsiders(now Scout.com) and Rivals.com. But by the time his senior season was over he'd dropped considerably. He played in 21 games at MU posting averages of 1.7 PPG and 0.4 APG before taking a medical leave of absence and then transferring prior to his sophomore season. He ended up at Detroit-Mercy where he averaged 6.3 PPG and 2.9 APG as a reserve before his season ended due to injury. That turned out to be the end of his career, as Bell decided not to play his senior season in order to concentrate on getting his degree.

Marcus Jackson - I'd love to have him as a hit for all the effort he showed and the always fun Point Center experiment, but I just don't think he did enough to be considered one of the Top 40 players in that class. His first year was injury plagued, and he was never able to get on track. As a senior he averaged 3.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG.

Ousmane Barro - Look I love Ousmane Barro for the heart and determination he showed on the court, and he's probably one of the all time great people connected with the University. But career averages of 5.2 PPG and 4.5 RPG, and regression from his junior to senior year just don't cut it for someone who is supposed to be one of the 40 best players in his class. Admittedly, it wasn't his fault, the ranking was just way too high for a kid that just moved to this country and hadn't played high school basketball due to eligibility issues. But we're not here to debate the fairness of the rankings, we're looking at accuracy.

Mike Kinsella - There may never have been a more snake bitten player in Marquette history. As a freshman at Rice University, he had a stress fracture in his foot and was a medical redshirt. He transferred to Minneapolis Tech Junior College so that he could play while rehabbing his injury and was a first team JUCO All American. It would turn out to be the only healthy season he had in college. In all three years at Marquette, Kinsella missed time do stress fractures in his feet. There were flashes of talent, like the Pittsburgh game his senior year, but injuries and playing style never allowed him to put it together.

Jamil Lott - Another JUCO All American, Lott was supposed to provide inside toughness to young team his first two years. Instead, he was a part time starter(using the term loosely) that averaged under 3 PPG and 2 RPG for his career. Much of his reputation when he came to Marquette was built on the fact that he played in the fairly weak Mon-Dak conference while in Junior College.

So there you have it. While there were definitely more ranked players this time around, the results weren't necessarily any better. Only 10 of 20 "Top 100" recruits managed to live up to the hype that preceded them, for a success rate of 50%. That brings the cumulative rate down just a bit to 68.5%. If I change my mind and include Ron Howard as a hit, that brings the rates up to 55% for this period and 71.4% for the three decades....but I'm not promising I'll do that yet.

Keep in mind though, that we're really only looking at 7 years worth of data right now. If Trevor Mbakwe turns into a stud at Minnesota, if Jimmy Butler develops like we think he will, if the incoming freshman live up to their potential, this could all change greatly.

Stay tuned for Part Four coming in a few days, where we break down the numbers a bit more, and include a player or two that might have been missed the first go round.

A look back, Marquette's history with top 100 recruits....Part Two, the 1990s

2009-05-15T10:00:00.000-05:00

Late yesterday, Rivals.com updated their class of 2010 rankings, and it looks like Buzz Williams (with an assist from Dale Layer) was way ahead of the game on everyone, as previously unheralded commit Aaron Bowen is now ranked #79 in the class of 2010 top 150. Bowen was also recently upgraded to 4-Star status on Scout.com, and while they haven't come out with a full top 100 for the 2010 class yet, he's a sure thing to be included in that list.

With that in mind, we continue with part two of our look back at Marquette's history with top 100 recruits through the last few decades, this time a look back at the decade that brought Marquette back from the dead...the 1990s. For those of you who missed Part One, it is available here.

Once again, a few notes before we go on:

There was a bit of a problem with some players in this decade, mostly because of the lack of ability to find complete information. Several players are listed as receiving All American honors in their biography, but since I can't find complete information, I don't know the number of players that received those honors...and in some cases I don't know what team they made. In particular, Roney Eford, Kenynon "Shane" Littles, DeMarcus Minor, Bart Miller and Jon Harris. I have a vague recollection that at least Eford and Littles were considered to be "Top 100" players by some, but since I can't prove it you won't see them below. If anyone can find some other information let me know and I'll do an update.

For one player in particular below, you will see a generic rank of just Top 100. Unfortunately for that particular year the list I found was in alphabetic order not in terms of rank. Because of that, I couldn't really categorize him in either group and have left him as an unknown.

Since it may come up, I'm only counting players that enrolled or attempted to enroll in the University, not just verbal commitments. That means you're not getting an opinion on Ledaryl Billingsley no matter how bitter many of you still are about his decision.

As a reminder, transfer players are counted with the class they effectively joined when they came to Marquette. That means in this particular ranking you will see some players that were ranked in the 1980s, but they are listed here because they became eligible at Marquette in the 1990s.

As with Part One, there is a legend for the abbreviations, This time I've edited it to only include those services that apply to this decade. Again, click for a better view.

Now that we've gotten the formalities out of the way, I present the "Top 100" players of the 1990s. Click the image for a better view.

So, as you can see right away, we do have a greater number of Top 100 recruits in the 1990s than we had in the 1980s. Also, just looking at the rankings independent of the results, while there are more players they are not necessarily as highly ranked as those from the 1980s. We'll have to see if they can outdo the earlier players in terms of living up to the hype.

The Hits(in chronological order)

Ron Curry - His first year at Arizona wasn't exactly stellar, but he made up for it with three very good years at Marquette when he decided to follow Kevin O'Neill to Milwaukee. He led Marquette in scoring and rebounding as a senior, scored over 1000 points in his career despite only playing three years, and was twice named All Conference in the Great Midwest. Truly one of the more under rated players in Marquette history.

Damon Key - One of the most consistent players in Marquette history. He's still ranked in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding despite last playing in a game over 15 years ago. Key was named All Conference in his final three years and led Marquette in scoring three of his four years. He was also one of 25 finalists for the John Wooden award as a senior.

Robb Logterman - Scored in double figures three of his four years, including 10.7 PPG as a freshman despite having to play most of the season out of position. Really though, he made his mark as a long range shooter. Logterman finished his career as the career leader in 3 Point Field Goals Made, 3 Point Field Goals Attempted, and was 4th in career 3 Point shooting percentage.

Jim McIlvaine - Averaged 10.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 4.3 blocks for his career. First in career blocks at Marquette and 18th in NCAA history. Also the Marquette leader in career field goal percentage. Great Midwest Player of the Year, Hank Iba National Defensive Player of the Year, and AP Honorable Mention All American as a senior. Was a second round pick of the Washington Bullets and played 7 years in the NBA.

Anthony Pieper - Probably more hyped in Wisconsin than nationally because he was the all time leading scorer in high school history. I don't know that he lived up to the local hype, but in terms of living up to the "Top 100" ranking, he did. A bench player his freshman year, he was a double figure scorer his final three years and when he graduated was among the top 20 in Marquette history despite missing games his senior year due to injury.

Chris Crawford - I'm sure there will be many that disagree with me, especially those that watched Crawford play his first two years. But I'd argue that his final two years, and his pre-injury NBA career point to the fact that the experts got it right. Crawford was the teams leading scorer with 14.9 PPG as a senior, and went on to be drafted in the 2nd Round of the NBA draft by the Atlanta Hawks. He played 7 seasons in the NBA and was on his way to a nice career before being derailed by a knee injury in 2001 and again in 2004.

Aaron Hutchins - Who can forget his game winning three pointer at Louisville in 1996, or his performance against Auburn in the first round of the 1995 NIT. He finished his career 11th all time in points, and in the top 10 in steals and assists. Who knows what could have happened back in 1995 if Mike Deane had started using him earlier in the season, or how far MU could have gone in 1998 had he not been in that car accident.

Brian Wardle - One of the best scorers in MU history, Wardle finished his career 3rd in All Time scoring at Marquette, and 2nd in Conference USA history. He led the team in scoring his final three years and was named All Conference as both a junior and senior. Additionally, he was named the Conference USA Freshman of the year, one of only two Marquette players ever to earn that award.

Cordell Henry - Maybe a bit controversial, but like Chris Crawford, I think the final two years of his career showed what those high school scouts saw back at Whitney Young. After a slow start, he averaged 11.2 PPG and 2.7 APG for his career. He was second on the team in scoring as both a junior and a senior and earned all conference honors both years. He ranks in the top 20 in points and top 10 in assists all time.

The Misses(again, chronological order)

Keith Stewart - One of the state of Wisconsin's more heralded prospects in the 1980s, Stewart initially attended Purdue. As a part time starter, he averaged 3.2 PPG and 2.1 APG his freshman year. Stewart transferred to Marquette with the assumption being he would be the starter at point guard the following year. Instead he played sparingly before being suspended by the University and then dismissed. He ended up transferring before the end of the first semester, and eventually ended up at California-Irvine.

William Gates - I don't know that anyone could have lived up to the hype he had coming out of high school. He was supposed to be the next Isaiah Thomas, and most thought the HoopScoop ranking he received was a bit low due to his injuries. Unfortunately he never really recovered and he was unable to turn into the player most thought he would. He was mostly a defensive specialist his first two years before leaving the team as a junior. When he returned as a senior further injuries kept him from really contributing.

Zack McCall - Originally committed to Syracuse as a football player, the athletic potential seemed unlimited. Unfortunately it didn't work out. He was a bench player for two years with a career high of 13 points, before he tested positive for marijuana during the 1996 NCAA Tournament. He was suspended for the following season, and ended up transferring Huron College in South Dakota where he was a Division II NAIA All American as a senior.

Richard Shaw - He was a bench player without many notable contributions his first two years and a part time starter his final two. Never averaged double figures in points or contributed significantly off the glass. Was a decent shot blocker who currently is 8th All Time in Senior Season Blocked Shots.

The Unknown

Alton Mason - I'm sure some of you are saying, who the heck is Alton Mason? Most don't remember him, but those that do recall that was supposed to be Mason manning the role of point guard when Mike Deane wanted to slide Aaron Hutchins over to shooting guard his final two years instead of Marcus West. It didn't work out that way, as Mason had academic issues and ended up transferring before even playing a game. He ended up playing three years at Arizona State, where he finished 10th All Time in Assists and 6th in Steals while scoring 13.4 PPG as a senior. Given what he did at Arizona State, and the fact that I only have a general ranking for him, I'm leaning towards counting him as a hit, but I'm willing to hear arguments from either side. Maybe we could get Marquette assistant Tony Benford to weigh in, since he coached Mason for a portion of his career at ASU.

So there you have it. The breakdown is much better this time around. Throwing out Mason, there are 13 "Top 100" recruits in the 1990s. The success rate was much better this time around, with 9 of the 13 players turning out to be hits for a rate of 69.2%. If you include Mason, the rate jumps to 71.4%. So far, through two decades, the success rate of all "Top 100" recruits is at 56% a significant increase over just the 1980s. We'll have to see if that holds up in the future.

One final note, I think a couple of people misunderstood what I was trying to say in Part One. When I classified a player as a miss, what I'm looking at is whether or not the so called recruiting gurus got their projections right. A player can still be a respectable player and not live up to the hype that is created by achieving a certain ranking. That's not to impugn his character, but rather to show how inexact a science recruiting rankings really are. Further, the fact of the matter is it's easier for a player that is ranked say 95th to live up to that than it is for a top 20 player, and that is reflected in the analysis. That doesn't mean I have it out for a player or dislike a particular player, it's just the way the perception of these rankings works.

Look for Part Three early next week.

The Dick Enberg Podcast: Reflections on Al McGuire

2009-05-12T19:59:00.000-05:00

Legendary broadcaster Dick Enberg joined me for a lengthy chat about the inimitable Al McGuire and we've captured that conversation in our first-ever podcast here on Cracked Sidewalks.

Later this week Enberg will once again bring his one-man show about Coach McGuire back to Marquette University for a pair of performances at the Helfaer Theater. As you'd expect, during our conversation Enberg revealed a host of riveting memories and anecdotes about Coach McGuire, including:

The genesis of the one man show on "the most incredible (character) I've ever met";
Enberg's breakthrough pre-game interview with McGuire just before the 1977 title game;
Details on McGuire's rather interesting (and surprisingly stunted) entry into broadcasting with NBC back in 1978;
Enberg's thoughts on the perils of replacing a legendary coach;
A preview of Dick's upcoming commencement address to Marquette's Class of 2009.

MP3 can be downloaded here, or click play:

Enberg's critically-acclaimed one-man show, "The Wit and Wisdom of Al McGuire" returns to Marquette's Helfaer Theater for performances on Friday and Saturday evenings. For more information and tickets visit the MU site or call (414) 288-7504. Let's pack the place for Al --- all ticket proceeds benefit Marquette’s Department of Performing Arts Drama Fund Scholarship.

The show will also run on Wednesday and Thursday night in Chicago at the Greenhouse Theater.

A look back, Marquette's history with top 100 recruits...Part One, The 1980s

2009-05-11T12:00:00.005-05:00

Last month, apropos of nothing and with no real intent behind it, I made a series of posts over on MUScoop, discussing the success or lack of success of "Top 100" recruits at a few different schools across the country. As the thread wore on, it morphed into a discussion of Marquette's success with "Top 100" recruits since Tom Crean was hired back in 1999.

After much prodding, I agreed to take it one step further, and do a retrospective of "Top 100" recruits at Marquette not just in recent years as we had done in the thread, but as far back as the available information would allow. It took much longer than expected to find all the information I wanted, but I've finally been able to compile it all.

There's a lot of information here, so rather than deluge everyone all at once, I've decided to split this into a series of posts. In this first installment, we'll be looking at the Top 100 recruits of the 1980s, and each future installment will also be done by decade, with a final wrap up to follow.

What I'm looking at in this series at it's most basic level is whether or not a player lived up to the hype of being a "Top 100" recruit. When you hear the term "Top 100 Recruit" there's a certain amount of expectations that come with that label. Much of it is statistics driven. You expect a certain amount of production right away when you see that a player is highly ranked. When an unheralded recruit averages 7 PPG as a freshman you feel like you got a sleeper. When McDonald's All American does it, you think he's a bust.

Having said that, other things factor into the evaluation. Sadly, many of Marquette's top 100 recruits haven't been able to qualify academically or stay eligible once they got in school. While that has nothing to do with their actual basketball ability, it prevents them from living up the expectations that were set coming out of high school, and it negatively impacts their evaluation. Additionally, things like attitude and leadership are factored in as well. They will not be the sole reason a player is evaluated a certain way, but a borderline player may be pushed into one category or another based upon things like team leadership and attitude.

Before we get to the actual rankings, a couple of important notes:

As you would expect, finding information on rankings from the pre-internet era is extremely tough. For this reason, the rankings shown in these posts go back only as far as 1980 which means we're leaving out a lot of former MU greats.

I've been able to find quite a bit of information on rankings from the 1980s and 1990s, but obviously there are limitations on what I can get. I'm sure there will be some people that were missed or some rankings that were missed for a particular player. If anyone can provide more information(with actual proof, not just how you remember it) I'd be happy to update the lists.

What you will see here is really bits and pieces of rankings done by different services throughout the years. Many of the recruiting services that we look at as the main sources of information today weren't around a decade ago, and vice versa. Trying to compare the rankings done by one service in 1984 to the rankings done by another in 2004 is nearly impossible.

All of the numbers are the final rankings for a player after their senior year, or the final ranking put out by the service during their senior year. That means players like Scott Christopherson, Krunti Hester, Tony Miller etc all of whom were "Top 100" Players at one time in their high school career are not included on this list.

One thing you will notice is that for some players the ranking will say something like 12th Team rather than giving a specific number. In the old days, several of the services did their rankings like the AP does their All American teams, with first team, second team etc. If you want to find out what ranking that corresponds to, simply multiply the team by 5. For example the 20th team means a player was ranked between 96-100 in that particular class.

We're looking at whether or not a player lived up to their hype, not just whether or not they lived up to the hype at Marquette. That means that transfer players(in or out) are evaluated on their whole career, not just their Marquette career. Because of that, you will find some players falling in areas that you may not agree with because of how they performed at another institution. Additionally, professional success does play a small part in the evaluation. NOTE: For players that were ranked as top 100 players coming out of high school that attended other schools before transferring to MU, the player is listed with the class that they effectively joined at MU, not their original class. The year they were ranked and the school they initially attended is listed next to the ranking.

Lastly, I've created a legend so that you may more easily understand my abbreviations that are going to follow. There's a lot of different services involved here, and typing them all out each time gets to be a bit tedious. You'll want to consult this when you look at the actual rankings(click the image for a more readable version).

Without any further ado, here's the rankings for the 1980s, followed by the analysis...again click the picture for a better view.

Looking at that list, you might be surprised to see that many top 100 players given the results that MU had in the 1980s. The team made the NCAA tournament only three times, and the decade ended with the disastrous Bob Dukiet era. But when you look how that supposed high school talent worked out, maybe the results become a little more understandable.

The Hits(in chronological order)

Doc Rivers - I'm not sure that any player in the 1980s lived up to their billing more than Doc. A first team Street and Smith's All American, and the first McDonald's All American in Marquette history, Doc was a stud the second he stepped on campus. He held the freshman scoring record for nearly 25 years, and he still holds the record for freshman field goal percentage. He was a Chuck Taylor All American in 1982, and an AP All American in 1983. After three seasons at MU he declared for the NBA draft and played more than a decade in the NBA.

Dwayne Johnson - The original DJ, his is a tail of both success and regret. On the court, he was great. He averaged 12.3 PPG as a sophomore, and was the team's leading scorer and rebounder as a junior. Unfortunately, he was not as good in the classroom. Prior to his senior season DJ was declared academically ineligible and suspended for his senior year. He transferred to UW-Whitewater, where he was a 2nd team All American, and the WIAC player of the year in his only season.

Mandy Johnson - He didn't do much scoring until his senior year, but with the talent around him, it wasn't necessary. Mandy was an efficient offensive player, who led the team in field goal percentage as a sophomore, but more importantly he was the floor general allowing the guys around him to get their points while he ran the offense. Really though, he made his mark as one of the best defensive guards in MU history. He finished his career second in MU history in steals, and held that position until this season when he was surpassed by Jerel McNeal. He still holds the MU record for steals as a senior, and is in the top 10 for the sophomore and junior records.

Kerry Trotter - MU's second McDonald's All American, Trotter may not have totally lived up to that billing, but he still turned out to be a very good player, worthy of a top 100 ranking. He scored in double figures his final three years at MU, including a high of 13.6PPG as a senior, and was the team's leading scorer and rebounder as a junior. He played professionally in Europe and was twice the MVP of the Belgian league.

Mark Anglavar - One of the great shooters in MU history. When his career ended in 1991, he was the leader in 3-Point Field Goals Made, 3-Point Field Goal Percentage, and he was the leader in every single season 3-Point statistic. He's since been surpassed by other players, but make no mistake there were few that could shoot the ball like him in MU history. Not only that, but he's still in the top 10 for Freshman assists despite not actually being a point guard.

The Misses(again chronological order)

Lloyd Moore - There may not have been a bigger miss in MU history. Coming out of high school, nearly everyone thought Moore would be great. In addition to the Street and Smith ranking, he was an Adidas and Parade All American as a senior and many predicted that Moore would be the next great MU big man. Instead, he was the biggest bust in MU history, both literally and figuratively. He tore a ligament in his knee prior to his freshman campaign which resulted in an extended absence. When he returned he was so out of shape that he managed to only play in 15 games, where he averaged less than 2 PPG and 2 RPG. He transferred prior to his sophomore year, and was a decent player at Rutgers for two years before he was dismissed from the team for failure to keep his weight under control.

Tony Reeder - Never lived up to the billing of a top 65 player while at MU. His only significant accomplishment is being among the All Time Top 10 in blocked shots as freshman, with a whopping 15 blocks. Unfortunately it didn't get better after that. He averaged under 8 PPG as a junior, and was averaging under 7 PPG as a senior when he was declared academically ineligible, ending his disappointing career.

Tom Copa - Probably the toughest call of this decade, I'm sure some will argue this point with me, but hear me out. Yes Copa scored almost 1000 points and grabbed over 500 rebounds, but when you are ranked among the top 65 players in a high school class, more is expected. He never averaged more than 8.5 PPG, and his scoring declined every year from his sophomore to senior year. Further, his rebounding went down from 5.5 RPG to 4.6 RPG as well. At best, he was serviceable in college, posting career averages of 8.2 PPG and 4.7 RPG, but serviceable isn't what you're looking for when you get a top 65 player. To his credit, Copa blossomed after college, parlaying his success in Europe into a back up role with the San Antonio Spurs during the 1991-92 season. I'm open to arguments on changing him to a "hit", but it's going to take a lot of convincing.

Walter Downing - MU just missed out on Downing the first time around, losing a close recruiting battle to Ray Meyer and DePaul. A McDonald's All American in high school, Downing never approached that sort of success at DePaul or at MU. He averaged 7.5 PPG and 3.5 RPG as a part time player at MU.

Gerald Posey - A Prop 48 casualty as a freshman, Posey was supposed to contribute right away once he became eligible as a sophomore. Instead, he had disagreements with Bob Dukiet which led to a famed incident where he stormed off the court during warm ups prior to the St. Thomas game in December 1988. By January, he was gone, transferring to Division III Trenton State College in New Jersey.

Corey Floyd - Perhaps the final nail in Bob Dukiet's coffin, Floyd was expected to team with Posey as the back court of the future starting in 1988. Like Posey, he was from New Jersey and had been a great high school player. Unfortunately, the similarities did not end there. He too had academic issues, but instead of being a Prop 48 player, he was not admitted to Marquette and had to spend two years at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas to meet NCAA eligibility requirements. He then spent two years as a back up at Providence, where his only on the court contribution of note was participation in a brawl against Rhode Island that led to a suspension.

So there you have it. As you can see, the top 100 rankings weren't exactly a great predictor of success when it came to Marquette recruits in the 1980s. Out of 12 recruits, only 5 really panned out, for a success rating of 41.6%. You'll have to stay tuned for the future posts to see if this rating improves as the years go by. I'm saving my conclusions until the final part of this series, we'll have to wait and see if my theory holds up in the future years.

Obviously, this is just my way of doing it, there is no real quantitative analysis for this kind of subject. It's tough to define living up to the hype, but as Potter Stewart said, "I know it when I see it". Feel free to disagree...

Liam McMorrow, we hardley knew ye...

2009-05-07T17:11:00.002-05:00

MU put out this press release:

Milwaukee - Medical issues have ended the athletic career of redshirt sophomore Liam McMorrow of the Marquette University men's basketball team, head coach Buzz Williams announced Thursday afternoon.
An extensive evaluation process has determined that McMorrow is medically incapacitated to participate in basketball at the collegiate level.
The Toronto, Ontario, native will remain enrolled at the University as he continues to pursue his bachelor's degree in broadcasting.
"We are very disappointed with the end result this has for Liam athletically, but because of the efforts and time spent over the last several weeks by all involved, we are excited that he is able to finish his academic career at Marquette," Williams said. "Liam and his family have been involved in this sensitive manner from the start and we are thankful his issue was detected when it was.
"We are grateful for Liam's contribution to our program over this past year and even though he will not be able to play for us, that will not change his involvement in our program in any other way," Williams added.
McMorrow, who redshirted in 2008-09 in his first year with Marquette after transferring from Durham College in Canada, did not appear in any games during his MU career.

What Does It Take to Make the Final Four?

2009-05-04T12:59:00.000-05:00

Cracked Sidewalks is pleased to welcome Mark Henderson to the site as a guest columnist. A 1992 Marquette graduate, Mark is an avid reader of the site and a well-read fan of college basketball. In this column, he reviews the recruiting histories of recent Final Four and NCAA championship teams to see how their tendencies might relate to Marquette and the future of the program.

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Talent alone is no guarantee of success in the NCAA tournament. Other factors such as coaching, team chemistry, experience, and luck can all play a role. But it takes elite-level talent to build an elite-level program.

Although Marquette has appeared in the Big Dance the past four seasons, questions remain about the future of the program. Can Buzz Williams maintain this level of success? Does MU have what it takes to compete with the best of the Big East, year after year? Is a second national title even a remote possibility?

With these questions in mind, it’s worth analyzing where Marquette stands in comparison to the top college basketball programs in terms of talent. A closer examination of the recruiting records of these programs yields some intriguing answers.

Methodology and notes
This analysis is based on the NCAA Final Four teams from 2006 to 2009 — along with their respective recruiting classes from the four years leading up to their semifinals appearance. In other words, we want to see what kind of high school prospects each team signed to help them reach the Final Four. All recruiting information and rankings come from the rivals.com archive.

First, a couple caveats:

1) Recruiting rankings are imperfect, at best. No two recruiting services ever come up with the exact same list. Some can’t-miss prospects never pan out, while others considered projects become superstars. For our purposes, we’re not concerned with whether a player should be ranked #34 or #89; from a broader perspective, rankings can still prove informative.

2) Signing class lists don’t distinguish between high school prospects and junior college signees with less than four years of eligibility. They also don’t account for fifth-year seniors, transfers or players who declare early for the NBA draft. The influence of these factors will be discussed more in depth later.

Baby Blue chippers
North Carolina’s blowout of Michigan State in the 2009 NCAA championship game confirmed what most experts had predicted as early as a year before. By almost any measure, the Tar Heels were the most talented team in college basketball. A review of their recruiting classes from 2005 to 2008 offers ample proof.

During that four-year period, North Carolina signed an astonishing five 5-star recruits (as rated by rivals.com): Ed Davis, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Brandon Wright. The first four all played at least 34 games during the 2008-09 season and averaged 60 ppg between them; Hansbrough and Lawson were both named All-Americans. Wright declared for the NBA draft following the 2006-07 season.

If that weren’t enough, UNC’s signing classes for 2005-08 also featured seven 4-star recruits: Larry Drew, Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard, Danny Green, Alex Stepheson, Deon Thompson and Tyler Zeller. Four of these — Drew, Frasor, Green and Thompson — played every game of the ‘09 season and would have formed the centerpiece of an NCAA tournament team all by themselves.

Only at a school such as North Carolina is it possible to view 3-star recruits as an afterthought. Head coach Roy Williams and his staff added a couple of those for good measure: Will Graves and Justin Watts.

From 2005 to 2008, only one other program signed more 5-star recruits (Duke, with six). No other program signed more 4-star recruits. The story might have had a very different ending if the team had lost more players to the draft, or if Lawson’s late-season foot injury continued to bother him. But the end result should come as a surprise to no one.

While this post focuses on Final Four teams, the case of Duke makes an interesting side note. It’s a team that never quite lived up to its potential, for a variety of reasons. Two of its 5-star recruits, Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler, became true impact players. But Josh McRoberts left for the NBA following the 2006-07 season. And the others — Greg Paulus, Brian Zoubek and Elliot Williams — have been inconsistent contributors. All the same, the Blue Devils had enough talent to finish second in the ACC and advance to the Sweet 16 before falling to Villanova.

A not-so-Spartan roster
Michigan State may have been over-matched by the Tar Heels, but that’s not to say Tom Izzo’s team was undeserving. Hardly. The Spartans were one of the most talented teams in the country, as a review of their recent recruiting classes shows.

MSU signed one 5-star recruit between 2005 and 2008: Delvon Roe. Big deal, right? That’s just the start. During the same period, the Spartans also signed an impressive six 4-star recruits (Chris Allen, Tom Herzog, Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers) and five 3-star recruits (Isaiah Dahlman, Draymond Green, Maurice Joseph, Austin Thornton, Travis Walton).

Throw in redshirt senior Goran Suton — a 3-star recruit from the Class of 2004 — and you have a team that could legitimately play at least 10-deep. Just not quite on the same level as UNC.

Recruiting by numbers
Connecticut entered the 2009 season expecting to challenge for the national title and came up just short. Their Final Four run is no accident. But oh, what could have been.

In the years 2005 to 2008, UConn matched North Carolina by signing five 5-star recruits: Andrew Bynum, Curtis Kelly, Ater Majok, Stanley Robinson and Kemba Walker. Robinson and Walker emerged as true leaders for the Huskies, especially down the stretch. The same can’t be said for the others. Bynum opted to go straight to the NBA out of high school. Kelly transferred to Kansas State after two seasons of limited playing time. Meanwhile, eligibility and recruiting issues may prevent Majok from ever taking the court for Connecticut.

Don’t feel sorry for Jim Calhoun just yet. He also signed up six 4-star recruits: Jeff Adrien, Jerome Dyson, Marcus Johnson, Nate Miles, Hasheem Thabeet and Doug Wiggins. Then, eight 3-star recruits: Craig Austrie, Donnell Beverly, Ben Eaves, Gavin Edwards, Robert Garrison, Scottie Haralson, Jonathan Mandeldove and Chukwuma Okwandu. If you’re counting, that’s a grand total of 19 ranked recruits. Plus, fifth-year senior A.J. Price (a 4-star recruit from the Class of 2004).

Even with the transfers of Johnson and Wiggins, Connecticut was still positioned to make a run at North Carolina — at least until the mid-season injury of Jerome Dyson.

The Philadelphia story
Notice a pattern emerging? You can expect more of the same from Villanova.

Between 2005 and 2008, the Wildcats signed two 5-star recruits (Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes), two 4-star recruits (Antonio Pena, Scottie Reynolds) and seven 3-star recruits (Shane Clark, Dante Cunningham, Casiem Drummond, Malcolm Grant, Andrew Ott, Reggie Redding and Maurice Sutton). Oh, and don’t forget fifth-year senior Dwayne Anderson, a Class of 2004 3-star recruit.

Eight of those players (Cunningham, Reynolds, Fisher, Stokes, Anderson, Redding, Clark and Pena) all averaged at least 17 mpg last season and formed the heart of the Villanova rotation. As with Michigan State, not quite on the same level as UNC. But it’s clear that Jay Wright and his staff worked hard to assemble a team loaded with top-level athletes.

Same old story
The trend continues as you look back at other Final Four and championship teams. Kansas in ’08? Six 5-star recruits, six 4-star recruits and three 3-star recruits. Memphis, last year’s runner-up? Three 5-star recruits, seven 4-star recruits, eight 3-star recruits (an incredible 18 ranked recruits in all). How about the ‘07 champion Florida? Eight 4-star recruits and 8 3-star recruits. And so on.

The lone exception from the past four NCAA tournaments: George Mason in 2006. Perhaps the ultimate Cinderella team, the Patriots roster included a mere three 3-star recruits: Kevin Mickens, Jesus Urbina and Sammie Hernandez. Breaking down that anomaly is the subject of another post.

Just don’t expect it to happen again anytime soon. Since 2006, Final Four teams have signed an average of 12.9 ranked recruits — including 7.8 recruits rated 4 stars or better. The air becomes even more rarified for NCAA champions, who signed 15.3 ranked recruits (9.5 of them rated 4 stars or better) on average.

So what’s it mean for Marquette?
Well, that depends. The good news is that Marquette’s incoming class is a strong one, rated just as highly as the Class of 2005 featuring James, Matthews and McNeal.

Here’s a review of the four signing classes leading up to the 2009-10 season:

Four 4-star recruits: Junior Cadougan, Lazar Hayward, Jeronne Maymon and Erik Williams.
Five 3-star recruits: Dwight Buycks, Scott Christopherson, Joe Fulce, Darius Johnson-Odom, Pat Hazel.

Clearly, Buzz Williams has accomplished a lot in his first year on the job — especially considering that Hayward is the only ranked recruit signed by Crean who’s still with the team.

That’s probably not enough to contend for the Big East title next year, especially given the team’s inexperience. A fifth straight NCAA appearance is certainly a realistic goal. Beyond that, we’ll have to wait and see.

Williams seems to have an affinity for talent; the unexpected emergence of Jimmy Butler is evidence of that. Unheralded recruits such as Chris Otule, Liam McMorrow, Brett Roseboro, Monterale Clark and Aaron Bowen may surprise, as well — plus MU has at least one more scholarship available for the Class of 2010. But it will likely be another year after that before we know if Marquette is ready to take the next step forward as a program.

Current roster would move MU from 295th tallest to 24th tallest team in Division I

2009-04-29T01:45:00.004-05:00

When Marquette reached No. 8 in the polls this year, I posted a blog noting that they were the 295th tallest team in America out of 344 Division I teams. The only team that was shorter that made any noise this year was Washington.

What a difference this recruiting class has made! Without speculating about who may be leaving to clear the extra roster spot, the tale of the tape now for the scholarship players reads:

7-foot-2 Mbao, 7-1 McMorrow, 6-10 Otule, 6-9 Roseboro, 6-8 Williams, 6-7 Fulce, 6-6 Maymon, Hayward and Butler, 6-3 Buycks, 6-2 Johnson-Odom and Cadougan, 6-0 Cubillian and 5-8 Acker.

After four years of David and Goliath matchups, Marquette in one year would transition from being the 295th tallest team in Division I basketball to the 24th tallest team – and would still be very high up the list even if McMorrow cannot play next year.

In 2008, MU was taller than only two of 35 opponents – Presbyterian and Houston Baptist. If this roster had been the team last year, Marquette would have been taller than 32 of 35 opponents, with only UConn, West Virginia and NC State being taller.

Does height matter?

In this case, conventional wisdom is correct – taller teams do win more. Ken Pomeroy did an in depth report (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=82). He found that offense was a bit better the taller the team was, while defense was more substantially improved. As you might guess, shot blocking showed the biggest improvement, and a substantially lower 2-point field goal percentage resulted for opponents. (I should note for anyone who missed it that this year Dwyane Wade become the first NBA player under 6-foot-4 to ever block 100 shots - so there is one shorter player good enough to buck the trend.)

We watched all year as MU had to double down to try to stop opponents’ with height advantages in the lane, and simply didn’t have the inside stopper at the end against Villanova, Missouri and others. Those of you with a bit longer memory may recall that 7-foot-1 Jim McIlvaine blocked 142 shots to take national defensive player of the year the season that Marquette set a record by allowing opponents to shoot only 35% from the floor in 1994. A Stanford team with a couple of 7-footers a few years later held opponents to an even lower shooting percentage.

The other good news from Pomeroy’s study is that almost the whole overall improvement is based on the tallest two players you average having on the court. So yes, when Dwight and Lazar were the tallest two on the court it’s logical that opponents would hit a ton of 2-pointers, and with Dwight on the bench and the tallest two including Butler and/or Wes, any team would be expected to give up a very high percentage of 2-pointers.

A rotation including any combination of next year’s roster would be expected to give up a much lower percentage of 2-point shots.

MUs "effective height"

Pomeroy goes one step further than average height to rank “effective height,” which focuses more on the average height of the front line on the court each minute. MU could easily shoot into the Top 10 in “effective height” for the year, and even if Maymon plays power forward all the time to hold down the average some, MU should easily be in the top 20% in effective height.

The top 9 teams in effective height last year, with their records, were: 1) Wake Forest, 24-7; 2, UConn 31-5; 3, SMU 9-21; 4, Florida State 25-10; 5, Gonzaga 28-6; 6, Utah 24-10; 7, UTEP 23-14; 8, Texas A&M CC 18-15; 9, Oakland 23-13. I’m leaving off a bad #10 team in South Carolina Upstate because they are a strange team with no tall players except 7-3 center Nick Schneiders, but because they just left him in most for most of the minutes to do nothing but sit back and block shots the team calculated as 10th in effective height despite having only one tall player.

When looking at the Elite 8 this year, you clearly don’t have to be the biggest team, as only UConn from the Top 9 made the Elite 8. However, six of the Elite 8 teams ranked in the top 20% of all teams in effective height, and the two that didn’t, Pitt and Nova, both had a dominant 6-7 or 6-8 center (Blair/Cunningham) who played bigger than their height - much as Maymon should do as a dominant, physical 6-6 player.

In Pomeroy’s study, the size of the guards doesn’t matter than much, so having Mo Acker on the floor is fine based on the history. Certainly last year giving up DJ for Mo really hurt defensively against Big East guards, BUT that was with no height to have Mo’s back. I’m not sure he is as much of a defensive liability when he can use his speed to go for steals and know someone is back there to swat or alter the shot of a guard that gets by or over him.

Still, I think we are a year away

As excited as I am about Buzz’s big recruits coming in to join Lazar, Mo and Jimmy, my gut is actually that we have one transition year in front of us. Georgetown and DePaul were very tall teams this year, but very inexperienced, and in the Big East that led to very disappointing years. I think this could be more like 1990-91, a losing record in the Big East as the class gets used to playing together en route to the Sweet 16 run later in their careers.

Hopefully MU gets to the top quicker, but whatever the case, despite all my cheerleading for the Three Amigos, it may be that MU had just hit the ceiling of what could possibly be accomplished with Crean’s ability to recruit such super guards but no big men.

Buzz's ability to recruit big is good based on basketball history.

MU adds aircraft carrier to 2009 recruiting class

2009-04-28T12:24:00.000-05:00

In a stunning development this week Marquette announced the signing of Youssoupha Mbao, a 7'2", 215-pound center from Dakar, Senegal. Per Rosiak's thorough article from today's paper the big fella was also being recruited by Kentucky, USC and Virginia Tech but opted to sign with Marquette on his official visit this week.

Mbao played ball at Stoneridge Prep last year in Simi Valley, California last year averaging 13 points, 11 rebounds and 6 blocks per game and will have four years of eligibility at MU. Rosiak spoke with Tony Benford, who led MU's pursuit of Mbao, for more details on the newest member of the program.

Mbao rounds out what can only be called a spectacular collection of basketball players in Buzz Williams' first full recruiting class, a group that Hoop Scoop previously ranked as the nation's best. Mbao, who is ranked #125 in the 2009 recruiting class, joins an accomplished group that already included 6'9" Brett Roseboro, 6'6" Jeronne Maymon, 6'8" Erik Williams, 6'3" Dwight Buycks, and 6"2" Darius Johnson-Odom.

As they say, 'you can't teach height' and heading into future seasons the Warriors will have plenty of bigs for the rotation. With Mbao signed, Buzz Williams has three players in the stable at 6'10" or taller with sophomores-to-be Chris Otule (6'10") and Liam McMorrow (7'1") joining the newest Warrior in the Aircraft Carrier Section of the roster. Incredibly, despite losing two of its bigger players to graduation or transfer after the season, the Golden Eagles could enter next year with ten players standing 6'6" or taller.

Or will they......

With Mbao signing his national letter of intent the 2009-2010 roster is over-subscribed by one scholarship player. With 10 potential players on the frontline, attrition with the bigs is most definitely in order -- something I never thought I'd say about the Marquette program. Clearly the coaching staff is prepared for another player departure, and one possibility is a medical waiver. With Joseph Fulce's inability to contribute after his early-season knee injury and the silence surrounding Liam McMorrow's status, the notion is not far-fetched. Essentially, an injured player would forgo future eligibility due to a medical condition but remain on scholarship at the university. In turn, the program would recoup the use of an athletic scholarship for use with another eligible player, in this case Mbao. With finals coming up in a couple of weeks, we'll find out soon enough.

Nevertheless, in just one calendar year Buzz Williams completely transformed the makeup of the team. The coach quickly re-charted the direction of the program away from a dependency on undersized, redundant backcourt talent in favor of taller, longer players that naturally fit into the five positions on the floor while also re-distributing players within class years (MUScoop's handy Scholarship Table sorts out the large yet balanced incoming 2009 class)

Additional Updates

Speaking of height and roster makeovers, don't forget that heading into 2010-2011, MU will welcome 6'10" Monterale Clark to the team. Clark, a native Milwaukeean currently playing JUCO ball in Texas, signed his LOI with MU earlier this year. Rosiak filed this report on the local product here.
Finally, the annual Basketball Banquet was held last night on campus - here's the recap from the MU folks.

Tex Winters put together players, coach and offense for MUs 1st Elite 8 team

2009-04-27T00:47:00.002-05:00

The report from Lakers coach Phil Jackson that his mentor Tex Winter was improving yesterday from an apparent stroke is welcome news to a key person in Marquette basketball history. We all hope his recovery continues.

While the basketball world will remember Winters for inventing the triangle offense, Winter got his start when Marquette named him the youngest coach in the country after the 1950-51 season before he had even turned 30 years old.

Winter got the job after a DREADFUL 12-year stretch during which Marquette won less than 40% of its games (90-139). The 1952 yearbook features a picture of the young Winter, and his assistant and eventual successor, assistant coach Joel “Jack” Nagle.

All Winter did right away was go out and recruit a class that I ranked as the 9th best recruiting class in MU history in a previous blog. Luckily freshman were allowed to play then, and four of Winter’s first recruits accounting for about half of the wins during the National Catholic Championship season his first year.

As freshmen, Russ Wittberger put up 299 points and had an estimated 200 rebounds, while high school All-American Rube Schultz (94, 120), Bob Walczak (195, 90), Robert Van Vooren (84,34) rounded out the freshman contributors.

Winter then put together an incredible follow-up class with Terry Rand, who I ranked as the 10th best Marquette player of all time, Don Bugalski and sharp-shooter Pat O’Keefe the next year. I am not sure if the freshman eligibility rule changed that year or not, because all three of these players did not play for Winter their freshman year. Even without their services, the team went 13-11 with Schultz and company, including losing on a trip to No. 1 Kansas State, where Winter would coach the next 14 seasons.

Two years after Winter left for Kansas State, those seven players took the court along with sophomore Gerry Hopfensperger to form an incredible 8-man deep team. As I wrote in the Ultimate Hoops Guide - Marquette University, the team used an innovative 1-3-1 offense that no one could stop.

I had the chance to talk to O’Keefe a few days before hearing about Winter’s stroke, and he claimed that the coaching strategy was all Winter’s before his assistant, Nagle, took over the year before that fateful 1954-55 season. I don’t know if the 1-3-1 offense was a precursor of the triangle offense that Winter would use to revolutionize the NBA under Jackson, but it would seem at least some of the concepts had to be in place.

The offense was so good that Marquette scored more than 84 points a game in 1954-55, a full three points more than the second best offense of all-time from Jim Chones’ first season. Schultz and Rand dominated in 1955, and Marquette won 22 games in a row. The team finished the season ranked No. 8 in the final AP poll, then went all the way to the Elite 8 finishing with a 24-3 mark.

By the time his recruits and his former assistant took Marquette to their first Elite 8, Winter was already in his second season of his incredible 14-year run at Kansas State, but he had made his mark on Marquette. The Marquette tradition was on its way thanks in part to a brief 2-year stint by one of the greatest basketball minds the sport would ever know.

2008-2009 Recap - The Changing Offense

2009-04-19T14:19:00.001-05:00

We previously covered the breakdown of the Marquette offense and what made it tick. However, it's not as though the offense was a static aspect of the season... clearly the team played worse at some spots and better in others.

How did the offensive performance change throughout the season?

The graph above is a moving 5-game average of our offensive efficiency against Top 100 opponents. The season average for efficiency shows up in the dashed red line, so one can see the points where the team was below season average and above season average. To dig in deeper, we're going to look at four separate points.

Villanova #1, which represents mostly the non-conference schedule but is a low point offensively
at Providence, which was the high water mark for the season offensively
at Georgetown. This game was down slightly, but still above average for offensive efficiency. The key here is that it was the last full game with Dominic James
Missouri, which was obviously the final game of the season

Breaking down the changes in performance for these four games

It's kind of an eye chart, but here is the key to the colors. Red is an area where that factor is worse than season average, and green is an area better than season average.

#1 - Pace. As we saw with its modest impact on efficiency, pace didn’t have a significant impact on offensive performance. There was no strong trend over time relating to offensive performance, and we can see pace being both above average and below average for strong and weak offensive periods.

#2 - eFG%. Again, as covered last week, eFG% has the biggest impact on offensive performance, and that shows up further here. The team's eFG% was below average on the worst mark of the season, well above average at both points, and then well below average in the final game of the season. Please note that after James went out, our eFG% went into a nose dive for the rest of the season. (of course, our opponents had something to do with that too).

#3 - Turnover Rate. Apart from eFG%, this was the biggest change from the Villanova game through the Providence game. Protecting the ball was a significant strength for Marquette, but it wasn't early in the season. There was a slight worsening effect in TO% after James got injured, but not enough to make a difference.

#4 - Offensive Rebounding Percentage. Interestingly enough, this was worse than average in both of the periods (@PC, @GU) that were positive efficiencies. There is almost an inverse relationship between offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage, but that’s misleading. A better interpretation is that MU was better at offensive rebounding once James went out and Jimmy Butler got more playing time. This factor helped offset slightly the poor effective field goal percentage.

#5 - Free Throw Rate. As mentioned before, despite the large number of free throw attempts we made, there was only a limited impact on our offensive efficiency. Similar to offensive rebounding, this was worse in the good efficiency periods and better in the poor offensive efficiency periods.

Summary

At the end of the season, Marquette was better than average on turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate. However, none of those areas were enough to offset the poor effective field goal percentage. This information also adds more backing that although Marquette was best in class for protecting the ball and getting to the free throw line, only the turnover rate had a significant impact on their results.

It was the eFG%, which was frequently mediocre, that had the largest impact on offensive performance. That's probably my biggest takeaway from this analysis... there's little that can be done with the other factors to overcome poor effective field goal percentage.

Killing time before Midnight Madness? Wiki top 10

2009-04-18T12:06:00.004-05:00

There's 10,000 days between now and midnight madness. Kill some time on the wiki:

Top pages:

MU Recruiting Central - Great page with links to a ton of recruiting targets, past and present.
2008 Season - Links to every player, every game, every coach.
All time leading scorers
Every MU Player A-Z
Monterale Clark (Coming to MU in 2010)
Marquette Jersey Project
MU Cheerleaders (dang, how did I not know of this page?) (1927 cheerleaders?)
Dwight Buycks
Jeronne Maymon
Erik Williams
Junior Cadougan
Aaron Bowen
Brett Roseboro

Other pages of interest:

2009-10 Season - The schedule so far, players, coaches.
All time steals leaders
Willie Wampum
2009 NCAA Coaching changes around the US
All time series records
1969 Season
Michael Wilson
MU Drinking Games
Bernard Toone
Robert Frozena Rob Hanley Pat Duffy
Gary Rosenberger
Richard Nixon!
The Old Gym
The MCC (conference)
Marquette Bars
MU Track & Field

2008-2009 Recap - The Offense

2009-04-16T13:27:00.006-05:00

I've been breaking down the numbers associated with the season that just ended. The point was trying to really understand what made Marquette go last year.

Before diving in too much, here's a quick look at the methodology. First, I am only including the data against Top 100 opponents. (Sorry, Presbyterian). Second, a lot of the data that I'll track shows a moving 5-game average. In other words, the trend will reflect the previous five games worth of data.

Let's break down the offense

Below are Marquette's season averages against the final Top 100 opponents compared against the Pomeroy full-season numbers (in italics). None of this information should be a surprise, but it's helpful to recap.

Pace - 68.5 (vs Pomeroy 68.4)
eFG% - 50.1 (vs Pomeroy 51.2%, #85)
TO% - 15.6 (vs Pomeroy 16.5%, #10)
OR% - 30.9 (vs Pomeroy 34.8%, #97)
FTR - 44.8 (vs Pomeroy 45.4, #12)

When we look at these figures, two outstanding areas for Marquette really stand out. First, not only was MU's ability to protect the ball great, but it was even better against the top 100 opponents. Second, the team's ability to get to the free throw line was also consistently excellent. Two areas where MU was only pedestrian (eFG% and OR%), however, did get worse against the better opponents.

Now that we know the performance of the squad on the key areas, how much did each area contribute towards offensive efficiency (and points per game)?

Efficiency Contribution (PPG Contribution)

Pace = 27.6 (18.9 ppg)
eFG% = 73.7 (50.5 ppg)
TO% = -30.0 (-20.5 ppg)
OR% = 28.8 (19.7 ppg)
FTR = 10.1 (6.9 ppg)

What does this tell us? Making a high percentage of shots was by far the greatest impact on points per game calculation. This, among other reasons, is why I tend to yell at the TV when I see a shot early in the clock or a long two . Marquette's turnovers, being as good as they were at protecting the ball, still ended up costing the team about 20 points per game. Marquette's offensive rebounds contributed about 20 points per game. What really stands out to me, however, is that the much vaunted ability to get to the line only had a limited impact on points per game.

The marginal value of a Free Throw Attempt (and other things)

How much was a free throw attempt worth? Or an offensive rebound, for that matter?

Average (Marginal Contribution)

68.5 possessions per game. (Each possession worth 0.3 points.)
12 turnovers per game. (Each turnover cost the team 1.7 points.)
12 offensive rebounds per game. (Each offensive rebound worth 1.6 points)
27 free throw attempts per game. (Each FTA worth 0.3 points.)

I left out field goals made because the math is based on making a percentage of field goals, and when I do the calcs it shows that a made field goal is worth 1.9 points. Thinking of how to explain it makes my head hurt.

Anyways, think about these numbers in the context of various games. MU beats St. Johns by only 14 points, with Lazar (five turnovers) and McNeal (four turnovers) coughing it up. Jimmy Butler has ten offensive rebounds against Syracuse. Wesley Matthews takes 18 FTA against Tennessee, out of 35 total MU FTA, and Marquette still loses by twelve with only 68 points.

Summary
Although Marquette's strengths were in the ability to protect the ball and get to the free throw line, it was actually their ability to make a high percentage of shots that played the biggest role in efficiency. Unfortunately, this aspect of MU's game was not at an elite level. Furthermore, although Marquette was able to get to the line at a high rate, the overall contribution to the team's success was minimal and may have been overemphasized.

In a subsequent post, I'll take a look at how Marquette's efficiency changed through the season, and try to understand which of the four factors played the biggest role in transitions. eFG% will be biggest, as covered here, but what else changed during the season?

Patrick Hazel to transfer from Marquette University

2009-04-12T23:50:00.004-05:00

Fox Sports a few days ago posted a list of upcoming transfers from division one schools. We confirmed tonight with Fox Sports that Hazel will, indeed, be transferring from Marquette University. Though nothing official has come from Buzz Williams, his staff, or the athletic department, Fox Sports indicated that it is definitely happening per sources close to the program (i.e. from a coach or administrator on the staff).

The move should not catch anyone by surprise. Hazel did not play any significant minutes down the stretch for Buzz's squad, even in blowout games (30 point win against St. John's) or contests where a tall body seemed the order of the day. Hazel failed to appear in any of the final ten games of the season. With Marquette over the limit by one scholarship, a transfer has been widely expected for weeks with Hazel the most likely candidate.

Hazel played in 21 games this season and averaged just a shade over 2 points per game. Hazel is from Queens, NY.