Bangkok Pundit

Stage-Managed Visit Impresses The Nation

2009-07-12T06:00:00.000+07:00

The Nation with an article where the sub-heading is "Boost for Democrat hopes of breakthrough in Northeast"

The unstinting welcome for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in Buri Ram yesterday has raised the Democrat Party's hopes of planting its flag in the stronghold of Newin Chidchob, a core leader of its coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party.

Though Abhisit's choice of Buri Ram as the first province on his tour of the northeastern region has aroused much controversy and conflict within his party, colleagues were confident the visit would boost his popularity, which is already high there.

Wongnongtaey, a senior figure in the ruling Democrat Party, described the trip as "very satisfactory" given the warm welcome the prime minister got from the locals.

Abhisit, however, said only: "The inspection of the area was fine" when questioned by reporters after returning to Bangkok in the evening.

Newin did not show up while Abhisit was in the province. Abhisit said Newin had not needed to as they had kept in phone contact.

A source close to Abhisit said Newin had stayed away because he did not want to be seen as trying to steal the show or invite criticism that the PM was visiting Newin's stronghold to boost his clout.

Democrat Party Ubon Ratchathani MP Supachai Srila said the party estimated that Abhisit's job-approval rating in the northeastern region was more than 70 per cent and the party was expected to win at least 15 parliamentary seats in the region in the next general election.

BP: Seriously? 70% his nationwide ratings are not even 70%. Talking up your chances can be expected, but this is just hyperbole. On the Democrat's chances in the Northeast, Korn said it best at the FCCT last year:

Question by Jonathan Head of BBC to Korn: Why are the Democrats always unable to win more votes in the Northeast?

Answer by Korn: I can tell you what is not the issue. People like to divide the camps into rural and urban. The majority of the southern voters are rural. The popularity of Thaksin in the North and Northeast is undeniable. It is also undeniable that traditionally they have been less politically active then southerners. It is also undeniable that money politics is less prevalent. We we have less money than PPP. However I agree with Chris [Baker], money "is the price you pay to play the game but it doesn't dictate whether if you win or lose". "If a candidate today in Loei runs under the Democrat banner for him to try to win he would need to spend two or three times more than his PPP opponent in order to win and even then he still might lose.

This is exactly what happened in the last election. "A number of former TRT MPs defected to Puea Paendin and they outpsent PPP three to one and they still lost". This goes along way to confirming what Chris said, but money is no longer determinative of your success. What Thaksin did was to make that connection and make it directly relevant to his target group. We are less afraid to compete against vote-buying than the buying of MPs. I still believe at the end of the day that if you sold your vote it is still your decision in the ballot box. However, it would be very ineffective for the Democrats to buy a Northeastern MP. Simply at the end of the day we cannot go against the will of the people and no amount of money will help

BP: To be honest, BP is unsure on what the long-term gain will be for the Dems by Abhisit's visit to Buriram. There is some limited short-term gain, but just look at the photo which accompanies The Nation's article with all the people lined up in a straight line along the road. They are just standing where they have been told to stand. Also see this video from Matichon, particularly the last couple of minutes, and see the lack of emotion on people's faces as Abhisit speaks.

Yes, Newin stayed away, but the visit was already associated with Newin and Bhum Jai Thai (Interior Minister and BJT Thai leader was right next to Abhisit).

The idea of Abhisit visiting the Northeast is a good idea on many levels, but it is the choosing of Buriram which makes the least sense politically. Yes, for security it makes sense, but even Surin or some other BJT province would be better and they could have ensured security given the thousands of security staff. Why not Ubon Ratchathani where the Democrats have a couple of MPs (it is the province on the right-hand side of the map next to Laos and Cambodia)? There would have been no link to Newin or Bhum Jai Thai. Wouldn't this have helped the Democrat's brand more? There best chance is not up the upper Northeast, it is the urban areas in the lower Northeast.* Not all the papers reported the visit as The Nation did, see Thailand Politics' post.

*Yes, yes, Buriram is part of the lower Northeast, but this is Newin country. At the 2007 General Election, the top 3 vote-getters in Buriram Constituency 1 where PPP candidates and all 3 got in the 76,000-79,000 range. As later in The Nation's article notes, this is the Constituency where the Democrats see they have a "very good chance" of winning, but the highest-placing Democrat in 2007 received only 18,500 votes. The only chance they have is if Newin hands the seat to them.

Daily Links 07/11/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-11T12:30:00.001+07:00

[AFP] Myanmar ophans flee to uncertain refuge in Thailand
[A sudden offensive against ethnic Karen rebels by Myanmar's military junta has caused what aid groups say is the biggest exodus of refugees from Myanmar since 1997, with some 4,000 people fleeing for safety since the start of June.

Just weeks ago the group of 96 destitute orphans fled their children's home in Myanmar to the sound of mortar shells and crossed into Thailand.]
tags: Burma
[AFP] Thailand bans protests in Phuket at ASEAN meeting
["I am telling all parties.... No kind of rally is allowed in Phuket. We will not designate an area for demonstration, we will not allow protest representatives to show up or mount a road blockade -- even peaceful rallies are not allowed," defence minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told reporters.]

BP: Slight overkill?
tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/10/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-11T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] Mingkwan: Thai PM must be economic expert
[In the midst of economic crisis, Thailand will need the government leader who has expertise in economic and capability to tackle the pressing problems of the country, former deputy prime minister and commerce minister, Mingkwan Saengsuwan, said on Friday morning.

His remark was made during a seminar on “Clear the Country’s Debt, Create Income for the People” held this morning at a hotel in Chiang Mai by the opposition Puea Thai Party.]

BP: He is saying, pick me! Reports that Puea Thai will keep some figurehead until closer to the election as they are worried about another party ban/dissolution. Mingkwan seems to be putting his hand up.
tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/10/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-10T12:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] Thaksin Does the South Pacific
"Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra flew to the Pacific islands this week, a Tongan government official says.

"He was here on Tuesday," the Tongan official, who did not wish to be named, said yesterday, adding he understood Thaksin left on Wednesday for Fiji.

"He talked to someone at foreign affairs, who looked after him."

The official did not give any further information on the purpose of the visit."
tags: thaksin

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

PAD Views on Conflicts of Interests

2009-07-10T10:00:00.000+07:00

A few weeks ago PAD's official English language mouthpiece TANN had an op-ed as follows:

We must try to purge Thailand of corruption, particularly among politicians so any laws that do that must be supported. It may seem like the politicians are being picked on by these nitty-gritty laws but anything to keep them from dipping into the cookie jar. And enough already with the excuse that they forgot they have these shares. If they can't be responsible for getting their financial affairs in order before assuming office, how can we trust them with our future? Politics is not child's play so politicians have to beware of what they're getting into and get their house in order. That means washing their hands off any shares in private companies. It's simple enough!

The Nation:

The Election Commission received reports alleging that the wife of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya holds shares in Bangkok Expressway Plc, EC secretary-general Suthiphon Thaveechaiygarn said Thursday.

The EC was due to meet and decide on the case next Thursday, Suthiphon said.

BP: So does his wife hold shares?

Our Protectors Against the Brothel of Treacherous Criminals

2009-07-10T09:00:00.001+07:00

From a press release from the lese majeste complaint against the FCCT with some help from an Englishman. Key excerpt:

In addition to the charges under article 112 of Thai Criminal Law further charges are to be filed this day against Thaksin Shinawatra, Jakrapob Penkhair, Veera Musikapong, Nattawoot Saikuea, Jatuporn Prompan, Marwaan Macan-Makar, Jonathan Head, other FCCT directors and UDD members that are implicated in crimes against the nation. Criminal Code articles 107, 113, 114, 116, 133, 135/1, 210, 213, 215, 217, 220, 288 and 289 are all used and each of the accused will have at least 2 or more of the aforementioned articles filed against them. Instant action is demanded as the cases expose a co-ordinated gang of conspirators committing acts of treason and concealment that not only threaten the Kingdom of Thailand and her national security but also insult Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and the constitutional monarchy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain that she reigns (not rules). Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II is protected by article 133 of Thai Criminal Law.
...
Many British nationals were shocked and outraged at how Mr Jakrapob rudely lashed out at Her Highness Queen Elizabeth II from the FCCT stage stating amongst other things that Tony Blair had put her in her place, Mr Jakrapob was questioned by a British national and forced to concede that like the presenter of the event he had very poor knowledge regarding the Great British Monarchical Democracy and that most of what he knew he learned by watching a movie. Mr Jakrapob arrogantly stated that Thaksin only had some loyalty for the monarchy.

BP: Come on friendly farang translator and ex-FCCT member, did u need to bring QEII into this? The Queen is available on DVD in department stores in Bangkok, you know? You are not going to take away our ability to mock Charles, also covered under Section 133, are you?

Will someone make a complaint against The Nation? If so, would Thanong and Co. finally conclude that a rethink of the law related to defamation of the royal family and heads of state is needed?

Ok, ok, this excerpt also can't be missed:

FCCT Board Further Charged with Article #210 “Criminal Conspiracy to destabilize National Security”

This means that the FCCT has acted as a “Den of Conspirators” or more literally as a “Brothel of Treacherous Criminals”. One article in this group of laws has in the past been used against Chinese Triad organizations that threatened the nation and now similar articles in this case apply to the FCCT, this means that directors involved in acts that destabilize national security are by legal definition Criminals; not Correspondents.

BP: BP needs a drink to read the rest of it...

This cracks BP up to "[a]lthough due to the dissemination efforts of the FCCT board the content is widely known...". Does he not comprehend that the LM complaint against Jakrapob initially spread news of what Jakrapob said? Otherwise, it would have been just to a footnote in history. Aren't "our protectors" further helping the distribution of this material?

Moving towards a Principled Foreign Policy?

2009-07-10T06:00:00.002+07:00

UPDATE: Just saw that Fonzi blogged on this last week.

Last week, Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun had an op-ed in the Bangkok Post making some valid criticism of Thaksin's foreign policy, but then concluding:

Under the Abhisit administration, Thai foreign policy has undergone an extreme makeover. The Democrat-led government has rejected Thaksin's business-first mentality and re-introduced a seemingly principle-based foreign policy. This time principle, not profit, represents the mainstay of Thai diplomacy.

BP: Remember those words "extreme makeover" and "principle-based foreign policy".

Op-ed continues:

By denouncing Thaksin's past initiatives, the current government hopes it would also de-legitimise his foreign policy - a much-needed strategy to alienate Thaksin further from Thai political circles.

BP: Wasn't it a principled-based foreign policy? Or is it really just past of a strategy?

Op-ed continues:

Members of the academia and local media seem to have embraced Mr Abhisit's new direction in Thai foreign policy. His government has spent the past six months fixing the country's diplomatic missteps caused by Thaksin and his cronies.

BP: That members of academic and the local media would embrace someone other than Thaksin is hardly surprising.

Op-ed continues:

Thailand's cosy relations with her immediate neighbours, during the Thaksin years, were mostly built on personal relations, and sometimes did not necessarily reflect national interests. The Abhisit administration has re-invented Thai foreign policy to become more accountable, especially in the year Thailand is chairing Asean.

Because his government has no record of civilian supremacy, injecting a democratic principle in foreign policy might just redeem a sense of legitimacy it sorely needs in these hours of political turbulence.

Last month, the government issued a statement, on behalf of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, voicing grave concern at the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, in which she is charged with violating her house arrest rules by allowing American John Yettaw into her residence. Thailand saw the need to toughen its stance and that of Asean vis-a-vis the Burmese junta to prove the country's respect for democracy - a position extolled by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

BP: It has been fair to say there has been a shift in the rhetoric in Thailand (which BP does agree with), but Thailand took this position as the head of ASEAN. ASEAN itself has been slowly moving towards a harder line on Burma over the last 10 years. Is the new government approach an "extreme makeover"? An extreme makeover would be to deny Burma the natural resource revenue, impose sanctions, and/or do something which substantially affects the Burmese junta. A change in rhetoric is arguably a step in the right direction, but it is not some extreme makeover.

Op-ed continues:

Burma's response to the Thai statement was predictable. It reproached Asean's statement and criticised Thailand for breaching the non-interference rule. What followed was the Burmese army's attacks on the Karen National Union which disturbed the Thai-Burmese border by the influx of Burmese refugees fleeing the fighting, probably as punishment for Thailand's hard-line policy towards Rangoon.

BP: So it launched the response on the KNU to "punish" Thailand? The Economist's take:

The reasons for the junta’s sudden haste are typically murky. It is preparing for parliamentary elections next year, the first since an annulled 1990 poll, and wants around 17 ethnic rebel groups that have signed ceasefires to take part. The Karen National Union (KNU), the movement’s political wing, is a holdout. The generals, who want to consolidate power and neutralise armed threats, have proposed turning ethnic insurgents into border guards, under their command. They may reckon that the KNU can be similarly corralled. But a crushing military defeat would do just fine.

The offensive also appears timed to divert attention from the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained opposition leader. Thailand’s foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, has been more strident than most in publicly dressing down the junta about this farce, which is due to resume on June 26th. Thai diplomats suspect that its prickly neighbour is stirring trouble on the border as a poke in the eye.

BP: Surely Burmese domestic considerations make more sense than launching the offensive just to spite Thailand.

On Cambodia:

With Cambodia, Thailand may have continued to play a nationalistic card in the Preah Vihear temple case. At a deeper level, what the Abhisit government has done in "de-personalising" Thai policy towards Cambodia should be commended. Many Thai-Cambodian shady businesses were reportedly promoted by the Thaksin regime. This explains why Thai policy has often been held hostage by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
...
More recently, Hun Sen confronted the Thai leadership, suggesting that Thailand should give up its Asean chairmanship because of its escalating domestic situation.

He himself is a devout nationalist, often speaking about the use of force against Thailand to protect so-called Cambodian sovereignty. His love for Thaksin remains evident.

BP: His love for Thaksin? Where was that love when Hun Sen cynically whipped up tensions that led to the ransacking of the Thai Embassy in Cambodia?

Op-ed continues:

The latest Thai opposition to the UN declaration at the World Heritage meeting in Spain, with a proposal that the grounds of the disputed temple be placed under joint Thai-Cambodian maintenance, could be perceived not only as a defence of Thai interests, but also a bold move in Thai diplomacy which refuses to become too elastic in accordance with the preferences of Cambodian leaders like in the past.

BP: If you are going to criticise Hun Sen for being a nationalist, how can you then defend the current government's position in relation to Preah Vihear? Is it also not nationalist? A week before Thailand decided to take its current position in relation to Preah Vihear, Abhisit went to Phnom Penh and had a bilateral with Hun Sen. He has conceded he never mentioned to Hun Sen that he was about to take this position. Is that really good diplomacy? Good diplomacy would mean you signal the position you are about to take so the other side is not surprised. This helps prevent a war of words in the media.

The government has taken a nationalist position for domestic political gain. There is nothing principled about the new government's foreign policy towards Cambodia.

Daily Links 07/09/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-10T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Reuters] Bomb kills soldier in Thai south
[A soldier was killed by a bomb and a Muslim civilian was shot dead in the latest violence in Thailand's restive south, police said Thursday.

The bomb was detonated as troops travelled in a pickup on a patrol in the town of Yarang in Pattani province. Five soldiers were wounded.]
tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Monarchy, Economy and Politics

2009-07-08T16:30:00.002+07:00

Bloomberg:

Thailand’s prime minister pauses briefly and swallows hard as he addresses the question few of his compatriots dare contemplate: life without King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch.

“I am under no illusion -- it will be a very difficult time for all of us,” says Abhisit Vejjajiva, who in December patched together a multiparty coalition government and became troubled Thailand’s fifth prime minister in four years.
...
Thailand’s need for stability has grown more acute with the emergence of a seemingly unbridgeable, color-coded societal chasm between wealthier city dwellers and those that live in the countryside -- warring factions that use symbolic hues to literally wear their allegiances on their sleeves.

BP: An interesting article, with plenty of facts and figures, which looks at the monarchy, politics, and the economy in Thailand. It is more focused on the later two, but talks about the stabilizing influence of the monarchy and hence this is why succession is important for economic and political stability.

An Innovation

2009-07-07T22:00:00.000+07:00

BBC:

Mr Kasit was seen speaking at several rallies by the Yellow Shirt protesters, who occupied the prime minister's office compound for three months and shut down Bangkok's airports.

Mr Kasit later described the blockade - which left mroe than 250,000 travellers stranded - as an "innovation in public protests".

BP: An innovation? Some innovations are bad...

h/t to someone on twitter

Democrats, Newin, and the Northeast

2009-07-07T10:00:00.000+07:00

One Democrat MP from the Northeast has been criticizing Abhisit for conceding the Northeast to Newin. It seems that the Democrats won't be, but will include Newin in on their plans as Matichon reports - see Thailand Politics summary and commentary here.

BP: It doesn't necessarily mean a general election is in the offing, but the Democrats are certainly preparing in case there will be one.

BP sees it is more likely they are preparing for possible by-elections because of the conflict of interest over shares. Given the government's small majority, the number of seats potentially up for grabs, polls suggesting some public discontent with the government, and the recent favourable by-election victories for Puea Thai, the Democrats will want to be prepared with an argument on why people should support the Democrats and coalition partners - ie a support the government to help us pass constitutional reforms and implement the stimulus and then there will be a dissolution otherwise there will be instability if you vote for Puea Thai.

Should the Health Minister Resign?

2009-07-07T06:00:00.000+07:00

Bangkok Post:

The Puea Thai party has called on Public Health Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai to resign, saying he had failed in his duty to control the outbreak of A(H1N1) influenza.

The disease has killed seven people and the number confirmed infections had soared to 2,272 on Monday.

Puea Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said the government was not doing its job properly. It was too concerned with its image.

"There will be an eighth H1N1-related fatality in the country and I'll put my job as the party spokesman at stake on that, because the disease is spreading everywhere," Mr Prompong said.

Sopon last week didn't call on the Minister to resign, but criticized the government:

The poor handling of the type-A (H1N1) flu, which has caused three deaths, does not inspire much confidence as the number of those infected also rises by almost a hundred cases daily.

BP: The question is, what more could the government have done? Should it close the borders? It should be noted that the World Health Organization does not recommend doing so:

WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus.

Then the question is on preventing the spread to Thailand and this needs to be weighed up on a cost-benefit analysis and to compare what other countries are doing. The idea of thermal scanners has been used in many other countries (ie Singapore and China). The scanners though don't pick up those people who are in the very early stages of the disease (ie presymptomatic) or don't have symptoms (ie. asymptomatic), but thermal scanners at the airport are likely to have initially helped in stopping the spread of the disease - those who had a fever were put in isolation - but it was inevitable that some presymptomatic or asymptomatic people would get through the thermal screening so the question then become on what to do to prevent the spread within Thailand.

The Thai government, like all governments, have been preparing for an avian influenza (H5N1) pandemic. Avian influenza had a very high mortality rate (more than 70%), but in almost all instances it was through animal-to-human contact. This meant the focus in rural areas where there were poultry. Thailand has an extensive village health volunteer (around 700,000 throughout the country) who have been looking at the villager community and educating them and those in district hospitals. There were all kinds of plans and protocols in place for this.

Then swine flu (H1N1) came along and caught most by surprise. Swine flu is spread mainly by human-to-human contact so this caused a shift in focus from rural areas to urban areas. Swine flu is spread so easily, but because of the low mortality rate so the various plans on social distancing (ie closing public transport, all schools, shutting offices etc) have not been implemented in full. Beside that and getting people to wash their hands there are limits to what the government can do - this is taken into account health resources in the country.

We also need to look at what is happening in other countries? As of July 6, there have been more deaths in Canada, United States, Australia, Chile, and Argentina (and of course Mexico) than in Thailand. There have been more confirmed cases in Canada, United States, Australia, Chile, Argentina, and the United Kingdom. Just look at the daily increases in a number of countries in the link above and you can see it is a worldwide problem.

The only criticism would be instead of airing these ridiculous ISOC sufficiency economy propaganda ads, why not provide practical guidelines to people on personal hygiene and urge all businesses and government offices to provide soap and/or alcohol-based hand sanitizers - much better than face masks in most instances? At least people will then be better prepared when in all likelihood wave 2 hits - this is usually when the higher mortality rate occurs. Aside from that, BP is unsure on what the Minister has done wrong or why he should resign.

Daily Links 07/06/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-07T00:30:00.001+07:00

Bangkok Post : Preah Vihear is a quandary hard to solve
tags: no_tag
- This year, bilateral ties plunged after the government's protest against the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation last month. Thailand's argument was the approval of the registration resulted in border tension instead of bringing about peace and cooperation.
  
  This strategy was unnecessary and in fact was a setback for Thailand more than the UN agency.
  
  Mr Abhisit said this renewed protest did not involve Cambodia as there was no mention of the neighbouring country. But in reality, it cannot be denied Cambodia's involvement because of the nature of the issue.
  
  Phnom Penh probably overplayed the issue too.
  
  What the Cambodian strongman said on the mismatch of soldiers between the two countries went too far. He certainly is not welcoming war, but his remarks were clearly aimed at local consumption in order to get Cambodians behind him and boost his popula

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Thaksin Nearly Arrested!!!!!!

2009-07-06T23:59:00.000+07:00

The Bangkok Post reports:

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra narrowly escaped arrest in Kuala Lumpur, slipping out of his hotel ahead of police and flying to the Pacific Island country of Fiji, Deputy Interior Minister Thaworn Sennian said in Pattani province on Monday.

Mr Thaworn said the Malaysian government had cooperated with Thailand in planning to arrest the fugitive former prime minister on learning of he was staying at the Shangri-la Hotel in Kuala Lumpur.

But Thaksin was vigilant enough to escape arrest and caught a plane to Fiji.

The minister did not reveal when this happened.

BP: Woohoo! So Thaksin managed to sneak out of his hotel, evade police capture, make it to the airport, and board an international flight? Did the Malaysian police think to check out the airport particularly as Thaksin has been flying in a private jet? Malaysian papers only repeat what Thaworn says with no information from the Malaysian side. Well it is either the Malaysian police are incompetent or that Thaworn is being a little economical with the truth? Given the Thaksin is in Cambodia rumours, it is interesting that the Thai government is now switching to Thaksin was in Malaysia.

Should note that from Matichon that Deputy PM Sanan says he is unsure of this news (ไม่มั่นใจในข่าวดังกล่าว).

This, of course, doesn't mean that Thaksin was not in Malaysia, but there are so many holes in Thaworn's story that it is just laughable.

Commentary on the LM Complaint Against the FCCT

2009-07-06T14:00:00.000+07:00

As already blogged a lese majeste complaint has been filed against all 13 board members of the FCCT.

CPJ:

The Committee to Protect Journalists rejects the politically motivated lese majeste charges filed on Tuesday by a private citizen against board members of the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).
...
"We reject these frivolous charges against the FCCT, which are clearly aimed at undermining press freedom in Thailand," said Bob Dietz, CPJ's Asia program coordinator. "Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government has acknowledged that lese majeste laws are often abused for political purposes and we strongly encourage him to reform these laws to protect press freedom as outlined in the 2007 constitution."

BP: Abhisit has gone a bit silent since his earlier statements this year...

You can also read statements by SEAPA and International Federation for Human Rights.

Frank G. Anderson has an op-ed in UPI. The key excerpt:

The campaign in Thailand to protect the monarchy will probably become a unique case history for academics outside the kingdom to study how civil society can be cowed into silence, foreigners still be demonized, and how ancient prejudices can still be effectively used to ensure change, which is only an occasional whisper in the wind. That it became a murmur frightened powerful interests and they are now increasing pressure.

Laksana’s exact role is subject to some suspicion. That she is a translator, and that the translation of Head’s supposed crimes was an issue some time ago; that there is a select group in Thailand that seeks to use lèse majesté charges against agents of change – these things are no longer much of a secret.

Who prompted Laksana to file charges? And will the public ever know those people or groups? Will any of them ever face criminal or civil charges, as they seem absolutely oblivious of their own exposure?

The Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan has issued a statement. Key excerpt below:

The Board of Directors of the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan [FCCJ] is appalled to learn that the entire board of the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) has been accused of committing lese majeste, a crime that carries a maximum prison sentence of 15 years.

The FCCJ is also gravely concerned that in the recent past the Thai authorities have used the country's lese majeste laws to restrict freedom of expression and have otherwise abused it for its own political ends.

The Foreign Correspondent's Club of China has issued a similar statement.

Well, then there is The Economist's article which mentions the complaint against the FCCT board and on lese majeste generally entitled "Thailand's lèse majesté law:Treason in cyberspace", but you will need to google the article for yourself if you want to read it. Needless to say the latest issue has not been distributed in Thailand.

BP: It is just a never-ending circus. Will there be any reform on who can make lese majeste complaints?

Facing Reality

2009-07-06T11:59:00.000+07:00

Chalerm interviewed in The Nation:

Chalerm Yoobamrung, chairman of MPs under the Pheu Thai Party, says there's no need to find a new party leader because everyone already believes that the real head honcho is former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

"Thaksin fever is very strong. So, we should let Yongyuth [Wichaidit] remain in the party leader's position. We don't need to find his replacement because Thaksin's red-hot popularity will overshadow everybody," Chalerm said.

Other leading party members are reportedly searching for a new figure to lead the party for the next election.

However, Chalerm told The Nation in an interview that no one could erase the public perception that Thaksin is the de facto decision-maker.

"No matter who will rise up to the party's helm, the people know that he or she is not the real leader. The new leader may be the legal leader but he or she will not be the real one.

BP: This is, in essence, the truth. There is mention that Puea Thai need to abandon Thaksin, but in all honesty it is like UDD abandoning Thaksin. He is the core figure. If he was removed, it is then that Puea Thai would crumble. They will need a leader though when it comes to the election as they need a candidate for PM. By then they hope the constitution has been amended and they can have one of the 111 banned TRT members otherwise it will likely be Mingkwan.

ISOC, Democracy, and Sufficiency Economy

2009-07-06T09:00:00.000+07:00

Pravit in The Nation:

But this is Thailand, a country where writing about this or that general makes for best-selling books and where the Army runs a fat campaign to educate the populace about democracy - despite its checkered record of staging one coup after the other.

The latest campaign, which is very visible, involved wrapping a huge campaign sticker in orange, black and white on one whole BTS Skytrain, on the inside and outside of carriages.

The campaign was dubbed "Sustainable Thinking" by the Army and the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) and involved a guideline on mental "immunity" which involves: accessing news with mindfulness, spending money reasonably, |carrying out your profession |with perseverance and making one's family sufficiently |happy.

"Mindfulness + reason = immunity" was its main motto.

Alright, maybe those messages - which also appeared on at least two large billboards along Bangkok's expressways - may not be the worst messages to convey. But is that really the job of the Army and Isoc?

Earlier this year, the Army was paid by Cabinet to go to rural areas - mostly regions where ousted and convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is popular - to educate people about "democracy". Sounds like a bad joke doesn't it?

BP: That is not the only ISOC ad campaign. There is another one with Abhisit, appearing as a Director of ISOC, and appears in a new TV ad for them which is below:

BP: You will note the sufficiency economy terminology and the use of HM the King's "เข้าใจ เข้าถึง พัฒนา" ("Understanding, Reaching Out, and Development"). It seems to be re-packaged as "moderation society" to make it slightly hip - "New generation loves 'moderation society'" and other buzz words. If you see the mosothai.com website you can see the entire campaign.

The Isolationists?

2009-07-06T06:00:00.000+07:00

The Nation interviews Suriyasai of the PAD:

This is an important point. In the end, whether it's new or not we must look at the policy of the party. We're now listening to various sides, including [ideas] about economic policy which so far have been of an extreme capitalistic system [on part of the Thai government]. We do not wish to go into deep detail but our PAD spirit is to oppose the global capitalist system, with less reliance on the outside and greater self reliance. All free trade must be reviewed. We must work with local capital to lessen our dependence on foreign [capital]. These are the challenge.

BP: In regards to trade and foreign capital, don't Puea Thai and the Democrats have more things in common than the Democrats and PAD?

What About Kasit?

2009-07-05T22:53:00.002+07:00

Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in his Sunday television programme that Mr Kasit at this stage can continue to perform his duties. Whether Mr Kasit should suspend his work will be considered as required by the law, he said.

Al Jazeera quotes Kasit as saying he will resign though:

Thailand's foreign minister has expressed outrage at being "criminalised" for his links to last year's protest blockade of Bangkok's airports and said he will "have to resign".

Kasit Piromya told Al Jazeera on Sunday that he will undoubtedly step down since the police have summoned him for questioning over the forced shut downs of the Suvarnabhumi international airport and the domestic Don Muang terminal.

"I have come to a point where I am being criminalised, and I would have to resign without doubt," Kasit said on Sunday.

"Fellow Thai citizens a few months back went to a police station near the airport and put a charge against me as being a terrorist ... I have been called by the police to meet them."

BP: So will he resign soon?

h/t to a reader

Summons for PAD Leaders

2009-07-05T06:00:00.002+07:00

Matichon reports that the police have issued summons for 27 PAD leaders and senior PAD members over the seizing of Don Muang and Suvarnbhumi airports.

The article states that on July 1 that Pol Lt. Gen Wuthi of Racha Tewa Police Station issued a summons for 25 PAD leaders and senior PAD members to attend the police station and give a statement in regards to a multitude of offences including public unrest, damage to property, incitement, and terrorism. In regards to the seizure of Suvarnbhumi airport, summons have been issued to the following 25 persons:

1. Chamlong Srimuang
2. Sondhi Limthongkul
3. Suriyasai Katasila
4. Samran Rodpet,
5. Somkiat Pongpaiboon
6. Amorn Amornrattananont
7. Chaiwat Sinsuwong
8. Sirichai Mai-ngam
9. Maleerat Kaewka
10. Terdpom Jaidee - was a TRT candidate in Srisaket.
11. Pipob Thongchai
12. Gen. Pathompong Kesornsuk
13. Anchalee Paireerak,
14. Pichit Chaimongkol
15. Prapan Koonmee
16. Boonjong Nasae
17. Kasit Piromya
18. Saranyoo Wongkrajang
19. Veera Somkwamkhid
20. Sarocha Pornudomsak,
21. Somsak Kosaisuuk
22.Samdin Lertbusaya - an aide to Chamlong and part of the Dharma army
23. Chana Pasuksakul
24. Pol. Lt. Col. Santana Prayunrat
25. Surawit Wirawan

27 PAD leaders and others were issued with a similar summons for a similar offences in regards to the seizure of Don Muang.

BP: This is only a summons and they have not been formally charged. They are requested to make an appearance and give a statement on July 16. Will see what happens over Kasit and also whether the PAD get angry or just shrug their shoulders knowing that the case against them is unlikely to go any further?

Almost, perfectly timed of Veera had appeared with Abhisit on the weekly show today...

btw, stories are now up at The Nation and the Bangkok Post.

Daily Links 07/04/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-05T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Political Prisoners in Thailand] New: Opposing Thaksin by supporting the monarchy
[When the pressure mounts from the so-called pro-Thaksin side of politics, the other side, represented by PAD and the Democrat Party gets excited. They attack Thaksin and demand loyalty and trumpet the monarchy as their symbol of anti-Thaksinism. The election victories have Puea Thai have set the cat amongst the pigeons again.

The Bangkok Post (3 July 2009: “PM, senators denounce petition for royal pardon for Thaksin”) is a useful example of panic amongst royalists and their supporters.]

BP: Indeed
tags: no_tag
[Thailand Politics]: Thai Economy: May 2009
[The BOT has released its charts and economic summary for the month of May 2009. I'm hesitant to make sweeping generalizations without knowing the seasonal trends and other variables that can greatly affect demand in particular sectors. That being said, the only "green shoot" I can see from a cursory glance at the charts and data is the slight improvement in the electronics sector, a key sector in Thailand's export dependent economy.]

BP: Links to the charts and economy summary available in the above link. Note particularly, as the poster notes, the fall of prices in the agricultural sector and think of the political impact of this.
tags: economy

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Not Everyone Falling for Government Spin

2009-07-04T19:38:00.002+07:00

Supalak in The Nation:

The local media has helped the government spin a misleading message that could damage Thailand's international credibili-ty- reporting that the World Heritage Committee agreed to delay its decision to list Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage site until February next year.

BP: Read the rest and his other article here. Nice to see journalists fact checking the government. Unsurprisingly, the truth and what the government says are not the same thing.

Daily Links 07/03/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-04T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Asia Times] Time to Engage the Burmese Generals?
[In the last year, he has been to Burma six times and travelled extensively. He has seen profound changes and traditional barriers falling away. All the more case, Thant says, for a campaign to engage with the generals.

"It was a narrow approach," he said. "We tried to further isolate the country as it was coming out of its own isolations. They built a wall around themselves in the 1960s and 70s, and then we built another wall around that." ]

BP: His grandfather is former UN Sec-Gen U Thant.
tags: Burma
- In the last year, he has been to Burma six times and travelled extensively. He
  has seen profound changes and traditional barriers falling away. All the more
  case, Thant says, for a campaign to engage with the generals.
[Reuters] Q+A: What is behind Thailand's mysterious insurgency?
["The insurgency is highly organized," said Anthony Davis, a security analyst for Jane's Information Group. "The secrecy is very effective, and militarily they've stuck with what they know best. They could keep this campaign going indefinitely."]

BP: Some interesting quotes and analysis
tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/03/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-03T12:30:00.001+07:00

[SWJ] Siam Cement Wins Thailand's Top Title in The Wall Street Journal Asia's Asia 200 Survey - WSJ.com
[It's been a tough year for Siam Cement PCL, one of Southeast Asia's oldest and biggest industrial conglomerates. But that hasn't kept it from maintaining its status as one of Thailand's most-respected companies.]

BP: A list of top ten admired firms.

tags: economy

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/02/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-03T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] South unrest leaves 2,897 orphans
The number of orphans had increased sharply from1,425 in January 2007 to 2,897 at the end of June, showing that the violence had intensified in the last 30 months, he said.

Mr Suparerk said southern unrest has left 542 women widows in Pattani, 502 in Yala, 439 in Narathiwat and 69 in Songkhla
tags: insurgency
[Bangkok Post] PAD leaders to be charged
[Charges will likely be laid against leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy PAD) in the next couple of weeks over the occupation and shutting down of Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports late last years, a senior police investigator said on Thursday.

Pol Lt-Gen Wuth Puawes, the chief investigator in the case, said a complaint backed by evidence had been laid against the PAD by the Aviation Department.�

Investigators were writing their case report and preparing to file charges, which would probably be in �mid-July.

He declined to reveal who among the PAD leaders would be charged.]

BP: About 3 months ago, the police said PAD leaders would soon be charged....
tags: pad

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.