Five Reasons why the Ubuntu Server Revolution will never happen

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10118571.post-55588715798998076242008-04-24T19:41:00.000-07:002008-04-25T21:26:07.118-07:00Five Reasons why the Ubuntu Server Revolution will never happenPlease read the VAR Guy's blog. It contains a tremendous amount of good information every day. But today I find myself disagreeing with the VAR Guy. I have complete respect for the VAR Guy, so I am writing out a response to his post <a href="http://www.thevarguy.com/2008/04/24/five-reasons-ubuntu-server-revolution-begins-today">Five Reasons Ubuntu Server Revolution Begins Today</a> that allows me to explain my position and how it differs from him. It isn't criticism of the VAR Guy, it is a difference of opinion. I hope he sees it that way. Here we go. Five Reasons Why the Ubuntu Server Revolution will never happen Recently Novell and Red Hat both announced they will not pursue the consumer linux desktop market. Many, including the VAR Guy, consider this a prime opportunity for Ubuntu to make its move. When competing against an entrenched opponent, you must find a weakness that can be exploited, and then channel all your effort into hitting that weakness. In today's market, it is about which company can better execute, not which one has the better technology. 1. Windows Vista Debacle: I agree here with the VAR Guy and everyone else that Microsoft has stumbled badly with Vista. That Microsoft has opened the door for everyone to begin to doubt the wisdom of all Microsoft all the time. But... I disagree that the opportunity is given to Ubuntu. Let's remember the Law #8 of the 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing, The Law of Duality - In the long run, every market becomes a two-horse race. This means if a consumer is not happy with Vista and wants an alternative, they won't turn to Ubuntu first, they will turn to Apple. OS X is the #2 OS for the Consumer Desktop. Ubuntu is competing first with Macs and then with Vista. The Windows Vista Debacle is a prime opportunity for Mac to gain significant market share. Ubuntu will gain some, but it will be an extremely small piece without any chance of growth. Also, when it comes to the competition, Ubuntu needs to be able to do something that Windows can't. It needs to find a niche market that it can dominate that Windows can't serve. This market just doesn't exist in the consumer market. When I can buy a new laptop from Dell for less than $650, it is hard for Ubuntu to lower my price and even if Ubuntu lowered it by a couple of hundred dollars, I still can't do anything with Ubuntu that I couldn't do with Windows. I don't gain any advantage other than learning a new OS. 2. Miscalculations at Red Hat and Novell: This one I disagree with completely. I will only speak about Novell, with which I'm extremely familiar. I know they have their own issues that they are overcoming, but they have been executing their Linux strategy masterfully. They have staked out a unique position, Business-Driven Linux, that identifies them immediately as a serious player in the Enterprise. Their partnership with Microsoft, while controversial, has put them in the front for consideration of any organization looking to deploy Linux. They are dominating the Mainframe Linux market with 80% market share. Focusing on the Enterprise and not getting distracted by the consumer market is the perfect action to take in the current market. 3. Server Consolidation: Server consolidation is happening and as the VAR Guy very well states in an additional post on his blog, virtualization is a major contributor to server consolidation. The problem with this argument is that it doesn't support Ubuntu as the winner. Quite the opposite, while Ubuntu is pursuing the consumer desktop, Novell and Red Hat are consolidating their positions as the Linux flavor of choice for Server Consolidation. This isn't David taking on Goliath, this is David taking on the 3 Goliaths at once. Remembering Windows NT Advanced Server - You can't compare the success Microsoft had with Windows NT in the mid-90s. At the time, Novell dominated the server space and refused to accept that they needed to build an application server. Windows penetrated a weakness of Novell and then supplanted them. This was only possible because Novell absolutely refused to respond to the market changes until it was too late. Today, the story is ironically similar but vastly different. While Ubuntu is pursuing their consumer desktop strategy, their hope of leveraging it into the server space is going to meet up with the harsh reality of a Novell and Red Hat already there and aggressively meeting the markets new needs. 4. Software as a Service Meets Open Source: Again I find myself completely agreeing with the VAR Guy but arriving at an opposite conclusion. SaaS is the future. All application vendors should be running scared because if they don't figure out how to turn their products into services they are history. BUT This again drives home the strategy of Novell and Red Hat and leave Ubuntu out in the cold. SaaS runs on Linux Servers, not on Linux Desktops. Ubuntu, by dividing their resources and their attention between the desktop and the server, will find themselves out maneuvered and outgunned by a vastly more powerful competitor and one extremely focused on the very space they are attempting to enter. 5. Intel: Intel isn't dumb and they have the luxury of being patient. They can back ALL the different flavors of Linux and still win. Working closely with Ubuntu isn't an endorsement from Intel. It is just Intel being smart and covering the bases. If Ubuntu attempts to be the desktop, server and mobile linux solution, it will fail at all three. You must FOCUS, put all your resources into gaining a foothold in a specific market, dominate that market, and then expand. The linux consumer desktop is not a specific market becomes you can't dominate the desktop when there are two other vendors already there. An Unpleasant Ending Like most revolutions, unless you win and rewrite the history books, you usually end up swing from a rope. Ubuntu will not die, at least not right away. It will go along, always in the shadows, thinking its big break is just around the corner. But it will never come and one day it will be consumed by a much bigger vendor that focused and succeeded. I want to thank the VAR Guy for his well stated post. He did all the work and I just rebutted. Again, please take the time to read his blog to compare his position to mine. www.thevarguy.com is where you can find his blog. Richard BlissRichard Blisshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06711443052326619281noreply@blogger.com